Ethanol bolstered corn demand growth from the mid-1990s through 2010. Since then, the amount of corn used in ethanol has flattened. Without policy change to remove a dated and unscientific regulatory hurdle, the outlook for domestic corn use in ethanol is stagnant. With policy to clear the way for year-round E15 and higher blends of ethanol, corn use in ethanol could increase by 50% at full implementation. Increasing use of ethanol supports a higher market price for corn and energy stability for Americans. As a financial crisis looms, farmers need market-driven demand at a price that returns value to the farm.  

Ethanol boosts domestic energy production and provides a hedge against global political and macroeconomic factors that impact oil availability and price. Corn is grown annually on an average of 90+ million acres in the U.S. across a wide range of geographies and climates, meaning that the crop can supply domestic biofuel needs even if a weather event reduces yield in one part of the country. Supporting expanded biofuel use brings benefits to the consumer in the form of a consistent fuel source at a lower price and brings benefits to farmers and rural economies through increased demand for a U.S.-grown crop. 

Corn Use in Ethanol as Part of Overall Corn Demand 

The amount of corn used in ethanol as part of overall corn demand grew rapidly between 2000 and 2010. In 2000, 6.5% of U.S. corn was used for ethanol. By 2010, 38.5% of U.S. corn was used for ethanol. This represents an average annual increase of over 400 million bushels per year.  

In 2011, the amount of corn used in ethanol declined for the first time since growth started to ramp up in 2000. Since then, growth in corn use for ethanol has been mostly stagnant with a slight upward trend. The average annual increase has been less than 40 million bushel per year, or less than one-tenth of the growth rate between 2000 and 2010. Corn used for ethanol has also been stagnant as a percentage of overall corn demand. For 2025/26, ethanol is forecast at 34.9% of total corn use. 

Over the next decade, USDA forecasts corn use in ethanol to stay near the current 5.6-billion-bushel level and near the current share of total corn use. But the trend for corn production, in the U.S. and globally is expected to continue rising on productivity gains and expanded production area in other nations. Without allowing demand to increase correspondingly, the increased supply will further depress already below-breakeven market prices. 

Less Corn in Domestic Ethanol as Gasoline Use Declines 

The USDA forecast for stable corn use in ethanol is concerning given the coinciding forecast for rising productivity. Even more concerning is the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast for declining motor gasoline use that indicates a decline in domestic ethanol use. In their " target="_blank" title="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/index.php">">https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/index.php">2025 Annual Energy Outlook, EIA projects a steep drop in motor gasoline use. Even with EIA’s less detrimental “alternative transportation scenario” the decline in motor gas use is significant over the next decade. If the national average ethanol blend rate stayed at the current 10.5% level, ethanol used in domestic blended gasoline would decline from the 14.2 billion gallons forecast for 2025 to 13.1 billion gallons in 2035. Or in corn terms, a decline from about 5.1 billion bushels of corn to 4.7 billion bushels of corn; 400 million bushels less corn for domestic ethanol use.  

And that’s with the less detrimental alternative transportation scenario. With the EIA baseline, a 10.5% average blend rate in 2035 would be 11.6 billion gallons or 4.2 billion bushels of corn: a 900-million-bushel loss in corn for domestic ethanol use.  

Losses in corn use for ethanol of this magnitude that continue to grow annually would be devastating without an offset in use. There is no single solution. But we can start with one clear domestic solution that can scale as total gasoline use declines: remove hurdles for higher blends of ethanol.    

Corn Use Potential with E15 

In their " target="_blank" title="https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/index.php">">https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/index.php">October Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecasts finished motor gasoline use at 136 billion gallons for 2025 and 2026. Given current motor gasoline usage, a 1% increase in the national blend rate equates to 1.36 billion gallons of additional ethanol used domestically, or 486 million bushels more corn used in ethanol.  

A 5% increase in the national blend rate equates to 6.81 billion gallons of additional ethanol used domestically, or 2.43 billion bushels more corn used in ethanol.  

(IMG_3186 (full).jpeg)

(IMG_3184 (full).jpeg)

IMG_3186 (full).jpeg (94KB - 1 downloads)

IMG_3184 (full).jpeg (89KB - 1 downloads)