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S Illinois | The question becomes what are we using as the metric for a negotiation win? Keeping in mind they are basically pushing on a string by applying non-economic constraints to an economic driven issue. Making someone buy something they either don’t want or can acquire cheaper has never worked long term but maybe this time it’s different.
22.5MMt in sales to them last marketing year. With Brazil increased production 18-20MMT was likely this year. With Brazil production up again this year, another couple could come off US/China sales. The only hope is that China will need to replenish their supply and the US can get a one time bump.
I also wonder if anyone has noticed CONAB bumping prior years Brazil soybean production. A 6.5 billion bu bean crop down there is becoming more and more likely. Thankfully we only planted 81 million acre this year.
Edited by w1891 10/29/2025 09:08
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