|
NW Indiana | 2024 China imported 105mmt of soybeans, 22mmt of that came from the US. They will simply pull from reserves and cut back where they can and reduce imports if they need to. Brazil will continue to increase production and likely at a rapid rate similar to the last time we tried this trade war stuff as basis levels will incentivize them to plant more. Odds are if China doesn't by any US beans our total exports will drop 200-400 million more from already low levels based on the known trade war. Basically we were exporting 2.2 billion, currently projected 1.7 and that could fall to 1.3-1.5. The world carryout will build some but the US will build carryout at a rapid rate taking a much larger percentage of it. The only way we will maintain a reasonable carryout is by not planting them. | |
|
Soybean Carryout Without China
