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| Current math in our area looks like this:
60 bu Trend Adjusted APH
80% MPCI
$10.16 spring
Gives you a revenue guarantee of $487.68
$518.16 with the same scenario but 85% coverage
Our beans are small, wet, yellow, and most are assuming we are going to have a smaller crop than the last 3 years.
Nov18 closed at $8.94 on the board.
Take the Nov18 bean price over your guarantee
8.94/487.68 = 54.55 bushel or less to have a payable loss
8.94/518.16 = 57.95 bushel or less to have a payable loss
50 bushel beans at the current price is (50 * 8.94) $447 of revenue per acre. About a $40 revenue loss per acre on your 80% coverage and a $71 revenue loss per acre on your 85% coverage level.
Bad enough where guys aren't going to put a lot more into the crop, or so I'm betting. I bet fungicide application on beans in our area is down compared to normal, and if we have aphids that show up, I bet some guys don't end up spraying for them. Throwing money at a poor looking crop, while sitting on a guaranteed $500 per acre, probably isn't going to be done by the masses right now. | |
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October insurance rally
