| JC STONE - 7/4/2018 08:30
On a post below you indicated that current market structure was similar to the 70's , 80's and finishing in the 90's.
At what point are we at now? This is important.
Prolly following a 30 or 60 year cycle also.
Hi JC,
It's only similar in magnitude. If you look at the corn futures for example, we had a massive rally in the mid 70's where price increased 3x. Any move like that - regardless the symbol- expends loads of energy, and price will need to restore it before it can make higher highs again. So in that example price spent a decade searching for a low, then another decade before it made new highs. In 2012, we finished another very large advancement in price that started clear back in 1999. The current one will be different for sure because the governing market structure is different, but IMHO, someone thinking that we are only 2012 weather event away from new highs is sorely mistaken because the market structure in control of price since 2012 does not support it. Price will never go where it doesn't have the energy to go - nor will it without supporting market structure. If it lacks either- forget it. And IMHO, the market structure will not support anything near highs til probably the 2030's - at least far enough out that there is no sense even thinking about it. But every year someone will try and figure out a way to draw that conclusion. We most certainly could get a bigger rally than recent history though, but will likely be nothing more than a correction in a larger degree bear market, and thus should be sold to whatever level the producer can stomach. Until then, the game is manage price risk as best you can...JMHO.
Cycles exist no doubt, but again, you can have the best cycle date that can exist, but price can only express the amount of energy available to it on the date. It will never create more. Thus, you have cycle dates that price rolls hard, and others which price doesn't even blink at it. I don't use them because its just another way to use a projection to blind yourself, and I got enough ways to do that already.
Take Care
Edited by J P 7/4/2018 09:47
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JP market structure
