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Fontanelle, IA | With available soybean supplies and their position relative to the market buyers (ie. US has soybeans; Argentina crushes beans to sell to China but might run out of supplies of beans to meet Chinese sales), how would an ARG crusher offload price and currency risk? and, are they doing it currently?
CME bean price has dropped but it looks as though their currency value has also dropped. I didn't find an ARG peso chart but a Brazilian Real chart looks as though their currency has dropped maybe 6-7% since May 1? .28125 on May 1 vs. .2641 today?
If they booked US beans today, then is their "gain" on the arbitrage trade basically $2 basis less actual logistic costs less currency loss?
Is it fair to say that the ARG crushers are bullish basis but bearish CME price? Or, why wouldn't they be locking in the windfall arbitrage and locking up US beans at current CME values? | |
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Question re: soybean price and currency trade - Don, Conan, IN555, others
