per Todd's take on DTN..

( https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2017/10/17/soybean-shorts-beware )

Table 22 shows USDA estimating Brazil's ending soybean stocks at 5.0 mmt or 184 mb as of Jan. 31, 2018, the end of its 2016-17 season. For the 2017-18 season just getting underway, USDA estimates Brazil's ending stocks at just 90 mb.

The obvious point here is that after five consecutive years of good growing weather, Brazil needs another year of good weather just to avoid falling short of soybeans. And if you follow DTN's daily market weather video with Senior Meteorologist Bryce Anderson, you know central Brazil is off to a dry start in the new planting season.

Given that the USDA seems to lose about 100 myn per year on it's own Carryout forecast for the US...??