Hi JC,

I thought about posting a full length expose' of beans since it's been a while- it would likely require 12-15 charts and 3- 4 hours minimum to put together....then I thought better.  The problem as you state it is you want "the" fork.  Well, in this case, there is a fork that gets you there, but it's not the fork that's important.  It's the context or the story price is telling that is leading you in that direction.  Price is always projecting itself into the future.  Always.

So...although there is a fork that will get you there, you don't really need it to come to some rational conclusion that it is likely that prices are headed higher.  Just strictly based structure alone, we have a low, followed by a thrust higher that took out multiple levels of resistance - the move in 2016. Price has pulled back to near the previous low putting in what appears to be a higher low.  So strictly based on price structure, what is the job of this swing?  We found a low, made a high - higher than several previous lower highs, then put a higher low in. By definition we are making higher lows and higher highs, and thus this swing's job in life is to make a higher high - or trade above 12.10.  So, 12 isn't a stretch at all.  No fancy lines are needed, just an understanding that we are likely building a corrective formation from the big move lower, in the hunt for a new "C" pivot, which will ultimately put in "THE" lows.  We already know about how much energy we have to work with to the downside just based on the 2016 thrust higher - via 'as above so below'.  And that is where the big picture concern lies. "IF" we went lower today directly without marking time, that thing projects into the 6 dollar range all day long - so outside of a price failure like what was seen on corn a year ago - you can expect that price will travel approximately that far.  That is why we so want to exploit the market structure already existent in the market  - the frequencies inherent in the formation - and be a seller in the higher priced areas that price should attain. Because short of the current "low low" being the "THE" low, we are likely heading to lower prices when price get's it's fuel tanks topped off.

Take care