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South Central Iowa | Hey Timmy, I am currently still alive. Haven't seen much of a reason to post. We have run nearly 1/3 of our soybeans and yield is sitting at 47, which is 6 below last year. It is what I expected. We finally got some of the rain too; 3" in the past 36 hours. I still have 1/3 of our soybeans that this could still help though. Plan to start corn Sunday or Monday when the field allows. Hope you can get to going soon! They say we need rain for the Mississippi, but I really enjoy October droughts, lol.
The markets are comatose. They haven't even been good for day trading. I have scalped soybeans the last two weeks, but it takes the whole week to get my trade accomplished.
Soybeans could trade from $9.04 to $10.32 for quite a while if something can't push them out. I posted a chart a month ago that showed a range on soybeans of $9.78-$9.88 that we would need to get through to go up and test $10.32-$10.47. I don't see us breaking that for a while. On Nov 15, I do have the upper side of an ascending buy area hitting $9.50 and it is currently about $9.36. I think that could technically bump us up in a rising wedge and test the summer highs without any real reason in the winter time. I do believe it will and I am not afraid of much downside below $9.50 for the next several months. It's not much, but I think there will be an opportunity to price 50-60c above here.
Corn is dead. It doesn't have a lot of down. I am looking at $3.36-$3.76 for the next couple of months. I am about 75% confident that $3.44'2 is our low though. I don't expect soybeans to drag corn along if they can break up above $10.32-47. A 3:1 ratio of $3.76 is $11.28 and that would be a good run for soybeans if there is no cause.
My thoughts are don't pay attention to doom mongers, but don't get overly confident in a long sustained rally for the next for months. Price doesn't have much down in it, but not nearly as much up as many of us would like.
Good luck with harvest!
Edited by Conan the Farmer 10/6/2017 13:27
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Conan Still alive buddy
