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South Central Iowa | This is an update, and some redundancy, to an earlier post on 9/5 found here:
https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=729827&posts=1...
I am looking at our high of $9.78'2 as being a temporary cap on soybeans. Hopefully I jinx it with this post. I was concerned with our close on Thursday. We took out our pre-report high of $9.77'4, but failed to hold it. Volume, while increasing, is still anemic and Tuesday's Wasde had less interest and volume than our prior two. Price itself has rebounded well, but without major buying power, I have difficulty seeing this carried very far. I call it a Lilliputian Lift, where a small group holds price higher than it deserves for a time until they run out of energy, are forced to capitulate, and return to a place where more substantial interest can be had. I am not interested in shorting, but I fail to see much more upside.
The same behavior was exhibited last year. We would take bearish news in stride and rally off it. We would soon run out of energy though, reject, and head to the low end of the trading range. The way we cycled last year was very systematic. We did not truly rally until November. I believe it is setting up much the same again; though breakout may occur earlier in my opinion.
For now, I am looking at $9.78'0 as the top of the range. That is down from $9.88'0, but until we reject downward, I will not rule it out. $9.23'0 is still what I am looking at for a bottom support area. The bottom is in, I think most everyone believes that. I am not worried for $9.04'4 or $9.07; there are very strong buyers from $9.08-$9.28 currently, and honestly higher than that. There is also the ascending trend line that I have added; the price of $9.45'0 is next Friday. That range is 55c, so a breakout of the topside would give us the energy to reach $10.33'0. That would be our biggest test as $10.32'4 was the continuous high for the summer, on my charts anyhow. Breaking $10.32'4 would release more stored energy.
I have a $3.04 measurement of stored energy from a wedge on the continuous. It's breakout points would be $9.04 (constant) and $10.32'4 (currently). But with that break, the energy starts being used. So if it were all upside, I would have a target of $13.36. I think it would predominately be to the up and I am looking to a gap from 2014 on the weekly and under from $12.90 to $12.97. Also, there is another gap from $11.49'6 to $11.63'0 to fill from last summer. Those are upside targets to press along with last summer's high $12.08'4.
So an upside breakout over $10.32 should begin releasing energy and I think we get between $12.08 and $13.36. If we are rejected at $12.08, that utilized $1.76 of energy and leaves us with $1.28; enough to return to $10.80 (a short 17 crop spring low). Overcome last summer's high and we can have loftier targets. $12.08 is more than just a high to me though, more of a horizontal pivot area on the weekly going back to 2013. So if we expend our energy making it to $13.36, we should still be able to pickup support from $12.08 as the market wedges and coils and builds up for the next move, whichever way that might be.
If we reject lower, say $11.00, we have the energy to plunge to $8.64. Very important to see where we reject. It will be amazing how well the fundamentals align with it. Say a 47 yield and a decent SA crop followed by good planting on 90 million acres with good weather outlook. Before you know it, we are $8.60 something next August.
Sorry for redundancy, but that is part of a range! lol
Good Luck!
Edited by Conan the Farmer 9/15/2017 00:13
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 NovSoy2017RangeII.png (77KB - 84 downloads)
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16 & 17 Nov Soy Traditional Charts Update
