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South Central Iowa | Nope, I meant purely in the sense of everyday is just as likely to go up as go down.
I am more into the idea of regression to the mean and balance in a slowly ascending market over time due to inflation. That would be a normal distribution. This is what various technical tools attempt explain through various types of retracement, measurement, and balance. Movement too far in one direction would seek to balance by moving hard in the other; we can measure this movement when it becomes apparent. Retracements are what guide our path back to all of the various medians or means; where there is balance.
In Chaos Theory though, these things would be an illusion from what I can tell. Initial conditions give me a base from which to work, but I would be mistaking randomness for these patterns I think I see. What I see as balance would be the butterfly effect; that the reaction is not in proportion to the initial movement.
I wouldn't rule it out, especially not being knowlegeable at all about the concept. Sure I have heard those words or had it touched on in a math class, but I have never really looked into it much.I think I would diverge with the idea of the butterfly theory in relation to our markets and commodities in general though. The butterfly effect can spool up energy from minor effects. Markets do that to a degree when they coil; but I don't believe to the extent that the theory would.
But it is interesting and definitely something I have not thought about or know much of. I wouldn't rule it out at all for sure!
Thanks for sharing it! | |
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10,000 coin flips. . .
