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SE ND | Conan the Farmer - 7/30/2017 11:20
NoDakFarmer - 7/30/2017 21:57
sellers couldn't even push it down to the last failed buyers.
I think you mean the last failed sellers. They did miss by a 1/2 penny, or 2'4c, depending on what you are looking at. But likewise, buyers have also failed to lift it up to the previous failed buyers. We are in a descending triangle. We did make a lower low within it and have made 3 lower highs. We'll see if we fail to make a lower low.
I'm looking at the daily chart. Price rallied back to the non-structural area around 1040. If those sellers are still there they should make new lows. The downsloping ml suggests that price has a high probability of reaching the ml, which currently sits around 965 and drops off fast. The issue for the sellers is the context, formation, and structure. Sellers should have at least been able to make a minor swing high on this last attempt, but they failed. I was initially thinking the modified Schiff ML would be met, but price stopped exactly on a sliding parallel where the last minor swing low occurred. To me, it suggests price is strong and buyers are more than willing to buy it up here. You mentioned the descending triangle- I see what you're saying, but again, there are subtle hints telling us who use forks that it is likely going higher. Very rarely do I use "textbook" terms for formations as they rarely work without understanding the context. But, in this case I'd call it a "bull flag". Honestly, we will know soon as price has once again pulledback. I expect to see buyers show up... If I'm wrong, I'll gladly take responsibility for my thoughts.
As far as acres of beans...I have absolutely no idea how many were planted nationwide- and I don't want to know. It means nothing to me. I can tell you what my crop looks like, and as much as I hate to admit it, it can influence ones opinion greatly. It's just the way a farmer and a market interact.
Edited by NoDakFarmer 7/31/2017 00:13
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A lot of ground to cover
