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South Central Iowa | A take off of Frytown's post here: https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=722087&mid=615...
I also think there are going to be higher prices to be had with this 17/18 soybean crop. So I want to make clear, I am not disagreeing that we see upward movement of significance at some point.
I wanted to point out some things I see in the chart that might lead to a temporary drop near-term. The primary basis is three short-term forks that are negative and have not had their ML's verified. They exist in both the continuous and the contract charts. The first chart is the November soybeans on an hourly timescale covering a period of a little over a month. There are three unverified median lines which by rule have an 80% probability of confirmation. Also of interest is the steepening angle as each fork progresses. My interpretation is this is showing an increasing urgency to go lower. Now it's possible that these three failing could be the fuel needed to break Fry's monthly UML. It could also be that the market wishes to fulfill them in quick order, freeing price to then ascend and take out targets above. I have a target on there of $9.45'0 at 3:00 am on 8/3, Thursday morning. This is based off the latest distance between the UML of the largest hourly fork and the distance it would travel to the other side of the ML, 22'0c. It doesn't have to play out like that, but it is a scenario I could see and in its event, it would fulfill each ML. The second chart is the same ZSX17 chart along with an ascending fork that has fulfilled. The third chart is a continuous chart. It has an equivalent set up, with similar targets to the November contract chart. The fourth chart is SRL's of the hourly. I also see those in a negative alignment currently, there is desire to swing through the lines of the latest ascending SRL and a rejection a the cross of the descending 1/3 and old ascending 1/3 on Friday.
The target of $9.45 would fill the breakaway gap from June. It also may trigger stops and some additional selling pressure. I could see that being the trap, some might call if a "head fake", if it plays out to the downside. I also want to mention that I was concerned how little volume there was on Friday. The initiative to the upside was there to be seized and yet it did not occur. I think we should see some more volume and volatility when we are looking for a major trend and mindset change. We may achieve that volatility if we drop and that would likely bring about greater volume. Perhaps we will get it by just going up though. Also seems to be a lot of bullish sentiment, this might beat it out of us just in time to really rally.
Anyway, just some additional thoughts and things to look out for. I won't be too concerned if we are down there in early August. I think it would be good to take out that selling pressure earlier. I think our low in November beans is safe at $9.07'0.
Maybe a drop before the pop? But a pop likely to occur nonetheless!
 (NovSoyJuly30Fork.png)
 (NovSoyJuly30ForkII.png)
 (ContSoyForkJuly39.png)
 (NovSoyJuly30Speed.png)
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 NovSoyJuly30Fork.png (77KB - 96 downloads)
NovSoyJuly30ForkII.png (76KB - 94 downloads)
ContSoyForkJuly39.png (77KB - 91 downloads)
NovSoyJuly30Speed.png (75KB - 79 downloads)
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Possible Temporary Drop to Beware of...
