Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | Just wanted to remind you that the Jewison Westcott weather adjusted yield model explicitly includes a parameter to account for excess precipitation in July and it's negative 0.65 bushel per excess inch squared. For example, 2 extra inches of July precipitation would be expected to reduce yield by 2 squared (4) x .65 bpa or 2.6 bpa.
All their work was based on an 8 state model so you would expect the effects to be averaged or attenuated by differences across the whole 8 state area.
If you recalculated & applied their model to each area (state) individually you would expect to see more extreme values simply because it's more likely that a whole state might show extreme weather not shared by other more distant states.
It's also important to know that the USDA acknowledges using the weather adjusted model in their early estimated yields.
Edited by 1234 7/16/2017 21:57
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IN555 1.4 and 280 carryout
