In a van, down by the river. | We're starting to have a few more reasons to be a little bullish, and the reasons for being bearish are all pretty well known by now. In my simple view, the next 2-3 weeks is "prime time" from a seasonal perspective. This crop has a tad less polish than the last few years, and the funds are probably more short than they ought to be, which is why they've been net covering for a couple weeks now. I've got some calls to price and a bit more new-crop to price, so I feel good either way; some or all of that will get sold in the next few weeks. Now that we're into prime time, I'll be watching more for technical and/or COT signals to give me the courage to just sell if my targets aren't hit first. If all else fails I will sell using the calendar (June 15th...ish).
I am a believer in the outlook for a heightened probability of a hot/dry JULY/AUG, and the potential analog years I'm watching show (on average) a typical early-June seasonal peak, then a trough in early-July, followed by a counter-seasonal rally peaking in late-August. Therefore, I will probably make June sales with an eye to cover again later, and/or leave a few more bushels to sell later than I usually do.
Edited by Rob.Cogdill 5/31/2017 12:41
|
com on corn close above 3.94
