|
South Central Iowa | I have to apply only ag fundamentals and technical points when looking at the market. I can incorporate general news and what not, but I have no idea when we are going to have another global economic crisis; I just don't. No one knows if there will be a black swan event; otherwise it isn't a black swan. I can pretend what I would do in those scenarios, but I can't incorporate it into my marketing or my trading in any degree. The last two black swans were probably Trump's election and Brexit. The former had a positive effect in general and the latter caused an initial selloff and then recovery and resumption of business as normal.
What am I suppose to plan for? Major crop disruptions? The trade war that has yet to happen? A purposeful attempt by the new administration to devalue the dollar? War in the Donbass? War at the 38th parallel? War in the South China Sea? Nuclear Holocaust and TEOTWAWKI?
I can't incorporate any of those things into my marketing plan or my trading. I just can't. Period. I know about them (except the last one, that is an exaggeration), but beyond being aware, there is nothing I can do about it. I can try to mitigate it if the risk appears higher, but you shouldn't be making your marketing decisions based off non existent and highly speculative global events that don't appear to be occurring at the moment (maybe Donbass, but that would probably have a positive effect on grains).
I don't know how to incorporate trade war into my marketing plan tmrand. If it means selling my corn for nothing in February, I would rather say to hell with it, because I have no idea if it is going to occur at all. It probably isn't. If it does, I might react swiftly or see what happens when the dust clears. It just depends. I can't react to hypothetical things that are not a normal occurrence in the course of business. Production weather disruption is an annual real possibility in agriculture. War in Korea and its effect on global grain trade is not. | |
|
first 2017 sale
