In a van, down by the river... | Here is an analog year chart for JULY Corn based on a historical search of years with "good" correlation over a 50-, 100-, and 150-bar range. The volatility has been so low for much of that range that I'm less certain that these are useful analogs. To make things scale better on the chart, I shifted each of the years up or down (i.e. added or subtracted a constant value) so the average of the past 20 days is equal. By forcing all the price curves to meet around now makes it easier to see where we go from here. I didn't adjust the scaling of any of the curves (i.e. there is no multiplication).
The BLACK line on the chart shows the Average of all other selected curves, and the RED line is this year. The two other years left in bold colors were 1992 and 2000, which had the highest correlation values to this year (the carry out/use ratios for those years are also similar to the anticipated carryout ratio for this year). The AVERAGE line has two peaks after today around February 28th and March 23rd, with the higher peak being on Feb 28th. These dates make sense in the modern era I suppose because Feb 28th marks the end of the insurance discovery period, and by March 23rd we're starting to see clearer estimates for likely acres and spring weather forecasts.
Based on this chart, I'd suggest having big offers just below $4 on the July futures, and if they aren't hit by MCH 23rd, just go ahead and sell some on Friday, MCH 24th, then put in a new (higher?) target for the balance of your bushels. I suspect most folks are already looking for $4 CN futures, so I'll emphasize the "just below".
 (2017 N Corn Analogs.jpg)
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 2017 N Corn Analogs.jpg (94KB - 83 downloads)
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Maizeing, analog chart years?
