|
South Central Iowa | Yes.
Let's say that usage is 120 over and lowers carryout to 300 mb. That would be usage of 4,230 mb and a 7% stocks-use, which does justify the area we are now. Let's say it holds steady for 17/18 even though it increases 2-3% normally. Then let's say trend yield is 47.5. Under that scenario, we need 89.1 million harvested acres, 90 million planted, and trend yields in order to hold steady. I don't think we get those acres, and if we do, I think they come from areas that will probably be a drag on yield instead of a booster.
If we only plant 87 million acres and harvest 86 and the yield is trend with 4,230 usage, that leaves us with a deficit of 145 mb and decreases our 300 mb carry-in to a 17/18 carryout of 155. That is all without a drought.
Edited by Conan the Farmer 2/9/2017 10:50
| |
|
Export sales-Average
