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NW IN | Good question, so you made me dig a little deeper.
SoyRoy's absolute $ values don't mean anything due to the paradigm shift in pricing ($7 beans versus $12-15 beans), so I looked at the percentage move on his 30 year chart.
SoyRoy Harvest low to Dead Cat Bounce high, about 5.5% move. The pull back to JD Low, about 2% move.
SK17 Harvest Low to Dead Cat Bounce high, about 15% move. The pull back to JD Low, about a 7% move.
SoyRoy move to spring high is about another 5.5% move higher from JD Low.
Let's call the ratio 3:1 (the new price paradigm moves 3x what it did in Roy's analysis from 1985-2015, even though that includes 3-4 years of "new" paradigm prices), so for arguments sake, I'll use the same 15% move SK17 had since Harvest Low to DC Bounce was 5.5/15 and the move from JD Low to Spring High is also 5.5%
$10 low on 1/4/17, a 15% move prints $11.50 in March. | |
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Expanding SoyRoy thoghts from below
