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South Central Iowa | Brock was being inflammatory with that $6.00 number. But yes, he meant futures could be $7.50-$8.00 which with basis means high $6.00's in Iowa.
So you are not that bearish then Sat? Think soybeans hold this $9.50-$10.00+ until our planting intentions and growing season is over? Think the market, seeing that it is a futures market, currently has the large South American crop, Brazil 104-5 mmt, priced in currently?
I have an order in to exit my long July Soybeans at $10.35, really hope they hit tonight. If we get a pop up again this winter into the $10.30's November, I will sell a good portion. I am indifferent to the market now. It has no direction since Thanksgiving. I know you think it is down, but really it has taken away the SA weather premium and failed to break the November lows.
I don't see how this report moves the market much. In a normal year, there are pockets of good and bad and uncertainty abounds. This year we know everything was good. There is nothing bearish to surprise. Maybe they raise soybean yield a little? But they will offset it if they do. I can't believe they would raise corn any higher. But, like I said, this report is a mover when variances in production across the country exist, which is most every year, but not this year. Maybe there will be surprises in wheat.
Right now, the fundamental traders believe that in the high $9 area is a good buy because they think farmers won't plant enough in 2017. That is unlikely to change unless corn goes down. If South America has a weather problem, it will go up. If they have a great crop, it will stay generally where it is now until our weather season. Plant a lot of acres, like 88-90 million, on time, may be difficult for November Soybeans to get to $11.00. Good South American crop, lots of acres here, trend line or better yield; we are going to be closer to Richard Brock than Mike Florez.
Edited by Conan the Farmer 1/10/2017 21:45
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Soybean price guess??
