NH3 market continues firm and supply remains tight thru January.
Chinese urea exports down 3.8m mt over last year and operating rates
continue to be lower. Chinese local pricing continues to edge higher.
Given historical trends, US and Brazil need to import more product by
March. CF's Port Neal expansion appears to only be able to supply a
fraction of what has not been imported this fertilizer year.
Phosphates supply remains relatively tight and prices firm. Increase in
pricing has attracted two additional vessels to US for arrival in
January.
Producers announced a $20 potash price increase but it appears a
significant amount of product was purchase by wholesalers prior to
increase. This product will need to be sold before producers increased
values can be reached.
I am buying as customers order now on UAN. Until we can get a grasp on planting intensions for the N market.
I really think that Nitrogen will pull back going into quarter 2
I'd buy into 10-34-0 now as well as potash. The Producers are doing there best to keep supplies tight.