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South Central Iowa | Thanks Long!
This is not technical or anything, just my thoughts for what they are worth on Corn. I have an order in to exit my long July corn at $3.80, so roughly $3.65 March. I don't think we break the range on this runup (March $3.25-$3.69). What's more is I think we break a little lower on the next down, $3.35-40 on the March, the low of 9/30. This will appear disheartening, but I think it will actually be a coil. If it does occur, it will probably show itself by the last week of January. I think we then see corn charge back up and this next run-up will break the range in mid-late February. I think it has another 15-20 cents once we break $3.69 the March and we are looking at a winter high of $3.86-3.91. There are several points I came up with four weeks or so ago that crossed through there and made me think that would be a winter high target. I think after that high, which should occur end of Feb-Mid March, we back off going into planting intentions. This is just my opinion, but I think that the corn market has been under pressure for 6 months, staying within the same trading range. After a while, it becomes clear that it cannot break down more, so it breaks up. I think that the sell side is becoming fatigued, but I do believe one more hard dip exists, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it line up with the production report. But after that short sell side victory, short-covering and then broad based buying will take over and run up 50-60 cents.
Soybeans were kind of ugly, but I am not thinking we have changed anything unless we break $9.75'2 continuous or $9.83'6 March. I have a buy order in for a few more July at $10.00 even which should correspond with that range, but if we do break I see if we pick up support on the trend line underneath, currently $9.74 March today, $9.74'2 Thurs, $9.74'4 Friday. Break that, then looking $9.47'4-$9.52 to hold. That will be where I consider adding more length in my July beans, the $9.50's March, high $9.60's July. But I highly doubt we get there LongKC. Every time I have thought the beans looked bearish or poor, they go up and smack me again. I can't fathom at low price levels, that we would set a low below the harvest low. Sometimes a market goes up because it wants to be up. At least that is all I can figure in soybeans at times, and this past year, it has wanted to be up.
Edited by Conan the Farmer 1/3/2017 20:21
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Richard Brock says $6 cash Soybeans....
