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| I am only speaking for North Dakota producers looking for a firmer corn basis. First off, anything can happen and I am not certain of the direction of basis. Knowing that, consider your situation this coming summer. North Dakota has about twice the corn to move out of state before harvest than last season if we are going to maintain a 40 MB carryout. That is 350 shuttles on top of last year's 350 or so shuttles equivalent. I know there will be some moving east into the high vomitoxin areas. (Already has). I also know that USDA is expecting larger exports than last year. We have seen that already. Now, what will induce basis to firm? Right now, the CH7/CK7 is narrowing. That is one way of inducing corn movement. Spreads doing the work rather than basis. PNW basis has been firm in response to secondary freight trading at equivalent of $.30/bushel over tariff. Bean movement has been brisk along with holidays, hunting and weather which is taxing the rail system. Now, the only way is see basis getting better briefly is if the board drops another 25 cents and stays there for an extended period of time, corn piles are picked up and bins are cored because of quality issues, bean movement dries up and vessels are in place and need some corn during the road restriction time or planting time, After planting season, the wall of corn will head to town a little more than in previous years. I think there will be a very short window to get any better basis for these reasons. My thoughts are to set your target price and get offers in there regardless of basis. I have seen too many producers miss a target price because they thought basis should get better. They are still holding onto that corn today. BTW, for discussion, what is the basis supposed to be? | |
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Basis bid going into summer
