Byrce Anderson has an update out on South American weather which says about 10% of Brazil's Soybean crop is in the North East quandrant that is suffering from dryness.. "well under 50% of soil moisture holding capacity.."

In Argentina reports of flooding in the Central limiting plantings.. as well as concerns for too dry in the South East part remain.

etc..

We got this head fake last year.. "It's fine.. fine fine fine.." and then Brazil's Safrina crops came up about 18 mmt's short of the previous year as delayed plantings pushed the 2nd crop out of it's ideal growing window..

Are we subject to the browing effect.. whereby analyst look at "trendline yields".. okay uptrending acreage x trendline yields = Sell everything NOW.. only to realize normal weather with it's up's and down's..  It's popular to bash weather Trends 360.. the guys who predicted a spike in prices last year on US dryness.. but if some of last summer's rains missed.. the Eastern Cornbelt under performed and it could have been worse.. would they have been so far off...???

We got nipped on the tail end here.. which made wheat sowing.. tedious.. as it can usually be..

For instance.. right now usually you can't tell much difference in our continues wheat fields vs our stubble back.. probably from a satellite both would appear the same..  However, the stubble back (planted behind corn stalks or bean stubble) does NOT have the subsoil moisture that continuous has.. we can expect.. 25 to 55 bu continuous wheat yields while the stubble back is 5 to 45'ish.. they both look roughly the same.. until the stubble back hit's the moisture wall where growth needs exceed available moisture...

During the boom we added acreage by adding double cropping and stubble back acres.. (are they economical to do at today's prices?!?) similar to what they do in South America.. but they are RISKY.. needing perfect weather to establish a stand.. enough moisture to ensure germination.. vs too much for compaction.. then MORE Moisture at the RIGHT TIME for growth and grain fill..

As we have pushed production.. is the market taking all of this for granted.. in that when things go "oops" and we come up a couple million metric tons short.. see last year.. see this year..???

Then you get a surprise rally..   It just amazes me how so many people buy into trendline yields every year..  reality is we have a few good years where we really pop it.. most are "eh" with a couple real dud's..

Was last year's 18 mmt shortfall of the risky safrina crop a dud.. or more normal weather..  where they are just trying to push things too hard..??

OR was 2014/15's wonderful bounty safrina crop the exception...??   Hey it worked.. well let's do it again...  "oops."

??? 

One other expectation going into January's stocks report.. as I said we got nipped on the irrigated yields this year.. 175'ish vs last year's.. well it wasn't uncommon to hear 225 to 230+.. but that is mostly off test plot data.. at 15.5% moisture.. I thunked we averaged 217 last year but we bin it.. after we hauled it out.. at an average of 13.5% it shrunk to 211 I think.. and the coop drys it down to 12.5%  Granted part of this is also shrink.. 1.3%..1.5% per point.. that's roughly 3.5% which goes out the air vents in storage.. If we binned 12 byn out of last year's 14.?? crop.. 12 byn x 3.5% = 420 myn bushels of "shrink."

So that makes a 2.4 byn carryout.. 2 byn..

Do Analyst "account" for this? 

Here yes Western part had a wonderful dryland crop..
Irrigated.. "not so much.."
beau coup wheat crop.. some being fed..

What to expect for stocks?

more wheat fed.. less corn.. but less corn grown.. = about as expected.. vs wheat.. down a bit.. plus alot of wheat was piled out side out west and spoilage will be "above average" on that..

The amount of sorghum which was thrown away last year due to spoilage.. was.. ALOT.  This year.. better.. but like I said we're getting it off the ground sooner.. so.. should be less spoilage..  ???