SDELEV - 10/26/2016 12:41

CZ6 CH7 currently trading at -9¢, 52.7% of full carry which is 17.04¢ at today's price levels using the CBOT daily storage rate of $.00165 and 2.5¢ interest.

Dec futures to March futures = 31 days Dec, 31 days Jan, 28 days Feb for a total of 90 days

$3.545 CZ6 x 2.5% = 8.86¢/yr  $.0886/365 = $.000243 per day x 90 days = $.0219 interest cost

90 x $.00165 daily strg = $.1485 storage

$.1485 storage + $.0219 interest = $.1704 full carry

So full market carry is dependent upon where futures are trading and market interest rates.

Commercial side of the business doesn't care what the price of grain is outside of interest cost.  We operate on basis appreciation & market carry.  So if grain is not moving to meet demand expect basis appreciation, if basis appreciation does not move enough grain to satisfy demand expect the spreads to come in to force the commercials out/to stop holding.  My guess is in this price environment we see lack of farmer selling which will at some point push basis and then narrow spreads.  Repeat of last year, exiting harvest.

9¢ carry is 52.8% of full carry, not real exciting, but might not get much wider if we don't get grain movement needed going forward.

Many say weld the doors shut, but keep in mind the old adage, market carry gives you time to be wrong.