In a van, down by the river. | I can't disagree with your observations, Allan. The past 200 or so trading days has been one of the most "anomalous" trading periods of the past 40+ years; in other words, the seasonal patterns of this year have been less similar to the norm than nearly all other years. I've generally found these analog year comparisons to be more worthwhile during the growing season, and when you have some sort of sharp "mark" in the pattern, such as the ramp up of price (and anxiety) this spring. I've been following 2009 as a potential analog since at least mid-May, and featured it in an earlier post when the market was just getting ready to break through $4.20 (or not).
I HOPE I am right that we are near an inflection point, but I certainly can't offer any guarantees. Also, I'm not claiming the bounce will be based on any fundamental reason such as increased demand. Rather, I think the turn in the market will be due to psychology - simply a change in the sentimental breeze.
If in fact you are right that we are still "circling the drain" and ready for a deeper flush, then producers should lean more toward straight cash sales or Minimum Price Contracts if you want to retain the ability to participate in an unexpected rally. |
When lows will be made...?
