Centre county Pennsylvania, USA | US corn production is modeled by simple regression on USDA historical corn production and NOAA corn belt June through July climate temperature anomaly. That model is:
Climate model corn production = USDA corn production trend - 0.334 x NOAA Jun_through_Jul corn belt climate temperature anomaly.
The model shows that US corn production departure from USDA trend line production has been -0.334 billion bushels per degree F, or - 1 billion bushels per 3 degree F in a recent 20 year period. Attached chart describes the model and its 20 year stats.
The model is for US corn production in a recent 20 year period and may not accurately predict production in future years. However; its message is to keep our eye on NOAA's June through July corn belt climate temperature anomaly forecast for the current year. Using that NOAA forecast in the US corn production model may be the "best guess" for current year US corn production departure from trend line production.
 (US_corn_production_climate_model.png)
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 US_corn_production_climate_model.png (122KB - 90 downloads)
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US corn production climate model
