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Jesup, IA | In the back of my mind, I'm thinking "never, ever base your marketing just looking off your back porch"
Every big marketing mistake I have made in the past handful of years has been over estimating the impact of weather. Like the wet conditions in the ECB last summer. I sold some, but not enough.
Trust me, I'm not feeling very smart at the moment. Undersold on the 2015 crop. Scared as heck about how 2016 is going to turn out. Grain prices need to move north quite a bit to get back to break even.
Edited at 6:30 pm to add:
Been thinking about Rob's comment and analysis all afternoon while working on taxes, cashflow, input planning. In comparing the past few years, it get so very obvious how the crop insurance system supports farmland values, rents, machinery sales, etc. Replanting payments in 2008. The drought check in 2012. Prevented Planting check in 2013. Revenue Protection check in 2013 and 2014. And even in a county that impaled 400 acres of soybeans for me in 2015, add the hail and revenue checks to the value of the beans and I wish my whole crop got hailed.
If I had to take the rough end of those risks like dad and my grandfather did, I'd still be cutting silage on drought years, and seeding down several hills and sandy acres by the creek right here in the heart of prime corn growing ground. Crop insurance has truly become a two-edged sword. Sure I love the indemnity checks, but then with no risk, there seems to be less return than ever. I'm probably the last one to comprehend this. But it's amazing how even when you farm in a "good" part of the corn belt, crop insurance becomes an almost annual revenue stream.
Edited by Ben Riensche 3/3/2016 18:34
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Corn trend line yields
