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| There are so many places it can come from, imports, dairy and cold storage is high with competing meats cheaper. There should be a great amount of caution right now. The spring high is typically March 8-10th ish. Do you dare go against seasonal trends? Basis last year at this time plus 2, last week -3? Heard a guy, just one had cattle to sell in Feb and he lifted hedges and is feeding them bigger to makeup for performance loss. Now just one person, but have we not learned anything from last fall? Same guy thought cattle might pop up $15 due to weather!
I could be dead wrong. It happens. At least I try to rationalize and not just hit the repeat button saying supply and demand. To me basis tells what is to come, price is increasing with a negative basis. In my world that is not healthy.
I am short apr long jun at around 10.80(looking to add) and short August long December at -.90 (losing a buck but it's gotta wait until this market breaks and it could go to -3 to -4 easy. | |
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Cattle
