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JonSCKs
Posted 2/20/2016 07:06 (#5124037 - in reply to #5123931)
Subject: ???


Wow.. well.. good morning to you to Maize.

"You have... But what do I know? Feel the Bern and carry on I guess. Free stuff for everybody!"

???

Not exactly sure where you are going with this..??

In 2011 our dryland corn made like 3 bu.. 2012 was better.. about a year ago I lost about half my irrigation systems in a wind storm.. and now I guess I'm a socialist..??  Or something...???

I really do not understand where you are going here...

"Risk managament "  Is something that you do.. you have to live with the $4.00 corn contracts.. when Prices go to $6.50.. and you don't raise much...  2011.

Fortunately, maybe you do have something to sell when given the opportunity.. 2012..  (golly glad I didn't lock in 3 years of $4.00 corn..)

Because you don't know what is coming around the corner.. Wind storm of 2015.

Today at one end of the spectrum we have Weather forcasters saying we got the mother of all droughts ahead of us.. Kirk I believe is his name.. spoke at Chicago conference..  Mine says that 2011 and 2012 were "only the opening acts.. Not sure yet that 2016 is gonna be as bad.. but we got more 2011's and 2012's to go in this phase of the AMO/PDO cycle..  What comes after El Nino?"

To.. DTN's forget his name.. Bryce Anderson.. saying that once we get by the wet spring planting it's gonna be another 2014 look alike.. or something like that..

I just came from a conference where the speaker has and is recommending selling $4.?? (believe they were 4.50's..??) Calls for.. "income enhancement."  (Wouldn't that have been a hoot in 2011?)

And just to make sure we got it all covered.. there's the possibility that we get a market melt down.. sounds like you are positioned..

 "the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust" has indeed played out again ..

???

So.. 

However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results. Sir Winston Churchill

yup...

Was there a question here or is this just a statement? 

edit add: for the record I'm neutral on weather.. probably skate by like Anderson says but headed for Kirk some time.. in the future. 

edit part duex: I'll add that fortunately we have grown some decent crops (thread below notwithstanding..) Lot's of 120+ bu dryland sorghum grown to my west.. that have once again given us a cost advantage.. for now.  Our plants have been profitable through this challenging time.. due no doubt to the blood.. sweat.. and so forth that have brought us to this point.

COP on 120+ bu dryland sorghum or corn ain't much..  COP on burnt up 3 bu stuff is at the other end.. We don't have to make it ALL on price.. and WE DO have to PLAN for the occassional short crop..

Friend of the Family's best quote and one BURNT into my psyche..

"Farming in Western Kansas.. you lose $$$ 4..5..6 years out of 10.. break even on a couple.. and make enough in a couple to see you through the next decade."

pretty well sums it up.. we got to make hay while the sun shines.. and my marketing plan has to remain flexible.. probably one that will NOT work in your neck of the woods.. nor yours here.

Gone for the day... later. 



Edited by JonSCKs 2/20/2016 10:09
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