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Weekly Ethanol report.. demand coming back.
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JonSCKs
Posted 2/18/2016 13:48 (#5120449)
Subject: Weekly Ethanol report.. demand coming back.


Last couple of weeks we've been talking about slowing domestic ethanol demand but this week's Blender's input popped back above the average since 9/1/15 at 878 k bbls per day vs the average of 870.5.. ditto domestic gasoline supplied at 9,203 k bbls per day vs the average of 9,051.  So for whatever reasons.. storms.. retail stations waiting on falling prices.. post holiday blahs.. etc.. it appears that we are getting back on track with the SUMMER DRIVING SEASON fast approaching (boy howdie.. 85 degrees here today!!) which will require the LOWERING of Vapor Pressure which will eliminate some of the non-ethanol alternatives.. Thus we can expect more demand in our future here soon..  ;-)

Implied exports are coming along.. I do not have the December Actual number but RFA site has the 2015 calendar year at.. 850'ish myn gallons for the calendar year http://www.ethanolrfa.org/  We did get another build in the stocks but.. this is normal and frankly not as big a deal as some commentators are making it out to be.. Gasoline storage is 10 x's this amount and there is still ample room with expected demand to come.. Stocks will peak out here soon as we head into summer.

The grind continues to run about 2.4% above year ago.. 2.1% above on domestic blended with exports running about 8.7% above year ago levels.

Tara will be happy that I upped the grind conversion to 2.8 bu per gallon per the RFA data released this week.. pretty good.  Puts the projected grind of grain total (including sorghum) at 5.253 byn bushels.

 

          Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindMonthlyYearSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand  myn buMotor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.8conversion Ethanol as % of
9/4/2015958 896 0 18,64249% 113.4 794  1009.4100,590  90179.94% 
9/11/2015961 878 0 18,29148% 133.1 932  1011.1100,905  89839.77% 
9/18/2015938 892 44 18,90050% 3.0 21  895.098,490  92159.68% 
9/25/2015943 881 0 18,78250% 78.9 5522,2991,438959.999,015  90219.77% 
10/2/2015950 882 17 18,81250% 80.7 565  962.799,750  89589.85% 
10/9/2015949 887 0 18,95650% 41.4 290  928.499,645  91379.71% 
10/16/2015951 897 0 18,87250% 66.0 462  963.099,855  91579.80% 
10/23/2015944 915 0 18,27348% 114.6 802  1029.699,120  93439.79% 
10/30/2015969 884 10 18,77449% 23.4 1642,2831,796907.4101,745  91849.63% 
11/6/2015982 868 26 18,85450% 128.6 900  996.6103,110  93889.25% 
11/13/2015975 870 0 19,24951% 48.6 340  918.6102,375  90549.61% 
11/20/20151008 885 0 19,62752% 69.0 483  954.0105,840  89219.92% 
11/27/2015956 876 36 19,99753% 63.1 4422,1651,450939.1100,380  92819.44% 
12/4/2015993 839 0 19,82952% 178.0 1246  1017.0104,265  94208.91% 
12/11/20151000 890 32 20,32254% 71.6 501  961.6105,000  92209.65% 
12/18/2015973 880 0 20,38754% 83.7 586  963.7102,165  91859.58% 
12/25/2015992 907 0 20,16653% 116.6 8163,1491,7051023.6104,160  93959.65% 
1/1/2016996 787 0 21,09956% 75.7 530  862.7104,580  81599.65% 
1/8/20161003 807 0 21,34556% 160.9 1126  967.9105,315  85009.49% 
1/15/2016983 856 0 21,94058% 42.0 294  898.0103,215  90799.43% 
1/22/2016961 865 0 21,43657% 168.0 1176  1033.0100,905  89419.67% 
1/29/2016959 815 0 22,36259% 11.7 823,208 826.7100,695  83419.77% 
2/5/2016969 858 0 22,95661% 26.1 183  884.1101,745  91229.41% 
2/12/2016975 878 0 23,21861% 59.6 417  937.6102,375  92039.54% 
             792pace       
15 to date970.3 870.5 6.9 20045  82 5712316??952101,8852,445myn bu9051  
14 to date947.3 852.8 0.9 18634  75 5262196178592899,4662,387myn bu8923  
                2419.458myn bu   
15 vs 142.4% 2.1%   7.6%  8.7% 8.7%5.5%??2.6%2.4%2.4% 1.4%  
   51496.0   Calendar Yr: 544.0 3808.0 19859.0       
   15139.8      gallons: 159.93632,84423,64972.0%2.80conversion   
              834.078       
2015 avg962.1 872.8          992.6pace101,017avg 2015 grind   
 14.75 13.38          0.993 5,252,890     

 

Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

Cheers.

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