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South central kansas | That analyst was Kyle Bass and he wrote a note to investors about the Chinese banking system and what he feels is going to happen. If the yuan, as he thinks is devalued by 30% or more and if that happens then our commodities are that much more expensive.
A snippet from Kyle Bass letter to investors.
"He noted that U.S. banks lost about $650 billion of their equity throughout the global financial crisis.
The letter said that the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) estimated that Chinese banking system losses from the 1998-2001 non-performing loan cycle exceeded 30 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)."
"We expect losses in this cycle to exceed prior cycles. Remember, 30 percent of Chinese GDP approaches $3.6 trillion today," he warned.
Bass wrote that he expected the massive losses to force Beijing to recapitalize Chinese banks and sharply devalue the yuan.
"China will likely have to print in excess of $10 trillion worth of yuan to recapitalize its banking system," he said. "By the time the loss cycle has peaked, we believe the renminbi will have depreciated in excess of 30 percent versus the U.S. dollar."
Edited by zenfarm 2/12/2016 21:25
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