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SE Michigan | Possible implications of central bank negative interest rates . http://www.barnhardt.biz/
Banks today are sitting on huge cash reserves because the economy sucks and banks have rightly discerned that lending money into a sucky economy is NOT IN THEIR BEST INTERESTS. If the economy sucks, then lending money to Joe Schmoe to start a business is likely going to end up in default. So, if YOU were a bank and your choice was between losing one percent by depositing money at the Central Bank at negative interest, or losing FIFTEEN percent on your loan portfolio because the economy sucks and a high percentage of your borrowers would default on their loans, which would you do? Well, duh. You would opt for the SMALLER loss of ONLY one percent, and you would continue to hold cash reserves and be VERY stingy with your loan portfolio.
Okay. That’s easy to understand, right? Well, the propaganda coming from the Banksters and willingly regurgitated by the useful idiot (Beta Narcissist) class is that negative interest rates will absolutely, positively result in increased lending by banks and thus “economic stimulus”. And bear in mind, they have been bleating EXACTLY the same line of crap in regards to “quantitative easing”. They have been saying for YEARS that all of the money printing done by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank would provide “stimulus” in the form of increased lending. And, as we all know, that didn’t happen. All that has happened is that the Banksters have taken the “new money” printed by the Central Banks and pumped it into the stock and derivatives markets, thus blowing a massive, unprecedented bubble. But Joe Schmoe still can’t get a loan to open a busiion ness. The evil, malignant Banksters KNOW that the whole stimulus meme is a lie. The useful idiots (Beta Narcissists and Effeminates) are so indescribably stupid that they can’t comprehend simple logical progressions even when they have a current experiential dataset right in front of their faces that clearly demonstrates the fallacy: not only does QE and other forms of synthetic “liquidity boosting”NOT stimulate the economy, it actually depresses it even more.
So now banks will be even more incentivized to offload cash by plowing it into relatively “safe” paper that has a higher interest yield than the negative rate at the Central Bank. What does this imply? Increased demand for Sovereign debt (bonds issued by nations), and derivatives on Sovereign debt. Now here is where it gets positively sick. Very soon, banks will be able to borrow money from the “discount window” at the Central Bank at either zero, or at a NEGATIVE rate. Think about that. The Central Bank, because the interest rate is negative, actually pays banks to borrow money from them. And this utter PERVERSITY is the root of the whole satanic mess. The first mover in all of this is the evil, perverse Central Bank. The Central Banks are completely content to pay banks to borrow money – a perversity – because the Central Bank doesn’t give a ****. It can just “PRINT” as much money as it “needs”. And, as we have discussed at length, the “printing” of money, money being a proxy for the human capacity to labor and create through time, is simply the leveraging of HUMAN LIFE, specifically at this late hour not just the life of every man, woman and child alive today OUTSIDE the oligarch class, but now generations upon generations of human beings who DO NOT YET EXIST, and are thus utterly powerless to object or mount a counter-revolt.
Okay, so now Bank A goes to the discount window and borrows “new money” from the Central Bank at NEGATIVE one percent, which means the loans generates a yield TO THE BORROWER. Then, Bank A turns around and plows that money, which is already generating a yield in and of itself, into French Sovereign bonds that yield 1.5%. Bank A does this because it is certain that France will never be allowed to default – the Central Bank will just keep printing money and printing money to keep France (or any other country) from defaulting on its debt. So, What is the total yield to Bank A? The one percent yield on the money borrowed at negative interest from the Central Bank, PLUS the 1.5% yield on the French bonds = +2.5%. Do you see why this dynamic INCREASES DEAMND for sovereign debt? It incentivizes governments not to PAY DOWN their debt, but to in fact EXPAND their balance sheets by going deeper into debt. And because the demand for sovereign debt is increased because there is more money chasing after it, the interest rates are driven DOWN (a lower interest rate is the same thing as higher price on bonds), and thus the politicians tell the people that not only is more government debt good, it is extremely good because “the interest rate is so low”. And the glassy-eyed sheeple nod passively and return to their tee-vee shows. Because actually learning and thinking about something that affects everyone on the planet directly is HAAAAAARD.
This will also increase demand for derivatives on sovereign debt (i.e. repurchase agreements and credit default swaps), again, because the banks are quite confident that the Central Banks will never permit a sovereign default. And who, pray tell, are the main counterparties on almost all sovereign debt derivatives? J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs (Ted Cruz’s wife is a GS executive – just sayin’) and Deutschebank. Uh-huh. And where do ALL of the people come from who populate the Central Banks, both in the U.S. and in Europe? J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs (Ted Cruz’s wife is a GS executive who formerly was a member of the Council on Foreign Relations – just sayin’) and Deutschebank. Uh-huh.
Kids, this isn’t terribly complicated. Really.
Now, to YOU, the people who PAY FOR ALL OF THIS.
Negative interest rates will be a cost to YOU in two ways. First, the obvious: you will have a confiscatory tax levied on your bank deposits every month – that’s what a negative interest rate is, sweetie. It is a TAX on the PEOPLE, NOT the banks, because the banks will pass through to the customers the cost for the bank to store reserves at the Central Banks PLUS a margin. Next, in an economy that is perceived to be relatively stronger or safer (of which the former United States is still at the top of the list because of its size, both economically and militarily) capital will flow IN to that economy, thus causing ASSET BUBBLES and CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION. Been to the grocery store lately? Looked into buying any farm ground lately? Uh-huh. So when consumer prices inflate, what do banks do to interest rates in order to cover the resulting increased risk in lending to consumers who now are having a much more difficult time making ends meet? Yep. They RAISE interest rates to borrowers. And so therefore a negative interest rate at the Central Bank not only does not stimulate the economy, it increases the contraction and deepens the depression (because let’s face it, if your economy is at the point that the Central Bank is going NEGATIVE on interest rates, honey, yo’ ass is already in a DEPRESSION, not a recession).
Now to the big ugly. Since the Central Bank is, despite any and all lying propaganda to the contrary, a government entity backed fully by the government and thus ultimately backed by the people, and since the Sovereign bond market is also a pure function of the government and thus ultimately backed by the people, when banks receive payment on both their capital borrowed from the Central Bank at negative interest AND receive a positive interest yield on their government bond holdings, that means that THE PEOPLE are PAYING THE BANKS… ON BOTH SIDES.
This is a backdoor way of confiscating collateral from the people and using it to RECAPITALIZE THE BANKS. And also pay the bankster oligarchs’ eight and nine-figure salaries and compensation packages, which, let’s be honest, is their top priority.
So now you may be thinking that this will cause a feedback loop to occur and rates will continue to be driven more and more negative. Yes. Absolutely. Because the Central Bank will have to keep adjusting its rate down to stay “more negative” than the Sovereign bond and other money markets.
What happens when customer deposit rates go sufficiently negative so as to compel normal people to withdraw their cash from the banks and hold it in cash? The answer is, the oligarchs will enact government policies outlawing the use of cash. Think I’m crazy? Have you tried paying your car insurance bill with cash lately? Cash. As in hundred dollar bills. How about your phone or utility bill? Guess what. You can’t. | |
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Central banks are impotent
