It's not a lot but with the front coming through there's some wheat ground blowing in spots today..  Other than a wet November and December..  We're starting to dry out again on the surface but we do have some subsoil.

The AMO/PDO cycle and whatever comes after El Nino is starting to make the news again.

Here is a refresher if interested.. this is a decent summary.  ( http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=592042&pos... )

My own biases right now is that the forecasters here were early on forcasting El Nino to come.. it finally did.. and I think El Nino may also be slow to come..  Again it's about 50/50 whether we flip hard from El to La.. which can end in a bad outcome.. 1988 et all.  It may just go quietly away..  My guess is that we will probably squeeze one more decently good year out production wise.. before going into the frying pan..

A drought would be bad for end users.. we need more time for the petroluem balance sheets to get straightened out..  Most believe we will still be oversupplied into the 3rd quarter of 2016..  However, probably anytime we get a push below $30 crude would be a good time to lock in needs.  How much/far out you go depends upon your outlook.. Supply should be drying up.. but we also need demand.. slow global growth is a drag right now..  but still we added 12 myn bbls per day over the past decade.. and that was during a down period.. but half of it came from China...   ???

"always something."

I'm worried enough about production to be cautious on forward contracting.. but not so much so that I do not expect lower prices.. with some sharp corrections higher to come this summer..  The big difference between today and the 1980's is that KSA idled over 70% of it's production in the 80's.. so we had that HUGE inventory hanging over our heads.. which we do not have today.  Today the inventory is in the shales.. but that will take higher prices plus a couple of years to go get..  so unless things melt down.. (dow down another 200 pts today..??) we're probably going to find some boyancy. 

edit to say "sifting" vs "blowing" more accurate.

Also i would say that those who have moved to a Grain Sorghum..  fallow.. Wheat rotation are paying dividends in this new cycle.  It's losses a crop going from sorghum to fallow to wheat vs Corn stubble backed to wheat.. but probably gains a little more moisture in the profile.. yipper that is looking good.

We got to decide whether we are going to irrigated corn or sorghum here.. If I thunked the La Nina was coming for sure this summer... probably would pull back and go with Sorghum...???  got a couple weeks yet to make the final call.