He even mentions going into July. There is only 2 cents carry from May to July so it seems like he is marketing like there is going to be a weather problem for sure. I think if he is that sure of a weather problem he should have guys lifting hedges or protecting them with calls instead of rolling out where there isn't much carry anyway. With these low prices gaining a few cents on the carry and a few on the risk premium can make the difference between a little profit and a lose. How high do you think the carry could go if somehow we would have another decent crop? |