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JonSCKs

Posted 11/29/2015 17:47 (#4926917 - in reply to #4926752)
Subject: Seasonally strong post harvest..

I erroneously stated that Q1 15 production was up 4.2% vs Last year in last weeks update.. It's up but not that much.. 3.8%. As I added data my formula's went off.. "whoopsie."

Thus I'm a little sheepishly posting this.. "yal.. uhm production sets a record.. yet Q1 15 is lower than what I told ya last week.. vs Q1 14.. uhum." So what's the point of posting this HUGE data set every week.. errors et all?

???

Well it does seem to be topical.. and golly internet bandwidth has to be used for something eh?

Anywho.. here goes.. I thunk I got my errors fixed.."uhum"

So Q1 15 production is up 3.8% domestic blenders is up 2.5% Total Gasoline supplied is up 2.1% Computed number to balance everything suspected to be exported is up 15% However, only about 71.8% of this number shows up in Actual Exports.. ?!? Maybe it's the denaturant that is messing this up (possible) maybe it's other unexplained domestic usage..??? IDK.. but this discrepancy is growing over time what ever it is...

The Computed number is up to 1 Billion gallons 1.089.. but the Actual is only up to 0.5657 through the end of August.. We did 0.846 for the CALENDAR year of 2014.. and I was penciling in 0.900 for 2015.. so..???

1,089 / 47 weeks = 23.17 x 52 = 1,205 x.718 = 865.. so.. a wee bit short.. but I'll update that in post below.

Last point.. margins are tight.. but ethanol producers seem to stomp down on the throttle post harvest to refill inventories and convert cheap basis bushels.. some have called me on this.. but once again it appears to be true.. I didn't thunk that since we didn't breech the 1 byn bbls level this summer.. that we probably would not do it again until summer driving season of 2016.. but "guess not."

So.. it's impressive that we cranked it out last week.

							*Computed*
	Weekly Production						number to balance		*Computed*	Actual	Total	Weekly bu			Weekly US
Week		Blenders Input		Imports	Stocks	Capacity	Residual and exports		Exports	Exports	Ethanol	Grind	Monthly	Year	Supplied Finished
	Ethanol k bbls/day		k bbls /day	k bbls /day	k bbls	k bbls	k bbls /day	k bbls	Monthly	EIA	demand			myn bu	Motor Gasoline
						37,936						2.78	conversion	5,005		Ethanol as % of
8/23/2013											0		WASDE	5134
8/30/2013	819		861	37	16,216	43%									9094	9.47%
9/6/2013	848		834	15	16,269	43%	21.4	150			855.4	89,681			8605	9.69%
9/13/2013	838		842	3	16,178	43%	12.0	84			854.0	88,623			9028	9.33%
9/20/2013	832		852	48	15,613	41%	108.7	761			960.7	87,988			8846	9.63%
9/27/2013	875		846	14	15,509	41%	57.9	405	1400	1299	903.9	92,536	358,828		8527	9.92%
10/4/2013	868		868	0	15,390	41%	17.0	119			885.0	91,796			8846	9.81%
10/11/2013	869		857	0	15,419	41%	7.9	55			864.9	91,901			9077	9.44%
10/18/2013	897		851	0	15,499	41%	34.6	242			885.6	94,863			8797	9.67%
10/25/2013	911		870	0	14,961	39%	117.9	825	1241	1206	987.9	96,343	374,903		9054	9.61%
11/1/2013	902		859	0	15,165	40%	13.9	97			872.9	95,391			9292	9.24%
11/8/2013	927		874	0	15,153	40%	54.7	383			928.7	98,035			9032	9.68%
11/15/2013	904		853	0	15,083	40%	61.0	427			914.0	95,603			8924	9.56%
11/22/2013	927		837	0	15,022	40%	98.7	691			935.7	98,035			8909	9.39%
11/29/2013	913		837	0	15,124	40%	61.4	430	1,931	2134	898.4	96,555	483,619	1,217,350	8873	9.43%
12/6/2013	944		826	0	15,488	41%	66.0	462			892.0	99,833			8348	9.89%
12/13/2013	928		827	0	15,625	41%	81.4	570			908.4	98,141			9016	9.17%
12/20/2013	926		876	0	15,660	41%	45.0	315			921.0	97,929			9176	9.55%
12/27/2013	913		808	0	15,582	41%	116.1	813	2160	1605	924.1	96,555	392,458		8893	9.09%
1/3/2014	919		756	0	16,138	43%	83.6	585			839.6	97,189			8274	9.14%
1/10/2014	868		797	0	16,078	42%	79.6	557			876.6	91,796			8021	9.94%
1/17/2014	905		802	0	17,018	45%	-31.3	-219			770.7	95,709			8059	9.95%
1/24/2014	900		815	0	16,932	45%	97.3	681			912.3	95,180			8584	9.49%
1/31/2014	895		801	0	16,739	44%	121.6	851	2,455	2,054	922.6	94,651	474,524		8452	9.48%
2/7/2014	902		816	0	17,062	45%	39.9	279			855.9	95,391			8325	9.80%
2/14/2014	903		806	0	17,203	45%	76.9	538			882.9	95,497			8030	10.04%
2/21/2014	905		835	0	17,024	45%	95.6	669			930.6	95,709			8535	9.78%
2/28/2014	894		846	0	16,611	44%	107.0	749	2,235	1,605	953.0	94,545	381,142		8411	10.06%
3/7/2014	869		841	0	15,908	42%	128.4	899			969.4	91,901			8949	9.40%
3/14/2014	891		845	0	15,277	40%	136.1	953			981.1	94,228			8512	9.93%
3/21/2014	885		857	0	15,653	41%	-25.7	-180			831.3	93,594			9002	9.52%
3/28/2014	922		850	11	15,875	42%	51.3	359	2,031	2,139	901.3	97,506	377,229		8713	9.76%
4/4/2014	896		852	38	16,407	43%	6.0	42			858.0	94,757			8996	9.47%
4/11/2014	939		848	0	16,952	45%	13.1	92			861.1	99,304			8616	9.84%
4/18/2014	910		853	11	16,518	44%	130.0	910			983.0	96,237			8430	10.12%
4/25/2014	898		865	0	17,212	45%	-66.1	-463	581	1,585	798.9	94,968	385,267		8693	9.95%
5/2/2014	894		846	0	17,140	45%	58.3	408			904.3	94,545			8719	9.70%
5/9/2014	922		890	43	17,302	46%	51.9	363			941.9	97,506			9191	9.68%
5/16/2014	925		886	11	16,990	45%	94.6	662			980.6	97,824			9174	9.66%
5/23/2014	927		895	0	17,489	46%	-39.3	-275			855.7	98,035			9310	9.61%
5/30/2014	938		862	0	18,250	48%	-32.7	-229	929	1,263	829.3	99,199	487,109		9104	9.47%
6/6/2014	944		869	0	18,422	49%	50.4	353			919.4	99,833			8624	10.08%
6/13/2014	972		891	0	17,850	47%	162.7	1139			1053.7	102,794			9258	9.62%
6/20/2014	938		891	0	18,183	48%	-0.6	-4			890.4	99,199			8813	10.11%
6/27/2014	953		883	0	18,204	48%	67.0	469	1,957	1,431	950.0	100,785	402,611		9168	9.63%
7/4/2014	927		883	9	18,286	48%	41.3	289			924.3	98,035			8935	9.88%
7/11/2014	943		851	5	17,945	47%	145.7	1020			996.7	99,727			9057	9.40%
7/18/2014	959		852	0	17,940	47%	107.7	754			959.7	101,419			8792	9.69%
7/25/2014	954		877	7	18,587	49%	-8.4	-59	2,004	1,600	868.6	100,891	400,073		9006	9.74%
8/1/2014	902		875	0	18,260	48%	73.7	516			948.7	95,391			9359	9.35%
8/8/2014	931		890	0	17,760	47%	112.4	787			1002.4	98,458			8922	9.98%
8/15/2014	937		864	0	18,251	48%	2.9	20			866.9	99,093			8775	9.85%
8/22/2014	913		889	0	17,317	46%	157.4	1102			1046.4	96,555			9100	9.77%
8/29/2014	921		880	0	17,673	47%	-9.9	-69	2,356	1,292	870.1	97,401	486,898	5,005	9480	9.28%
9/5/2014	927		850	0	18,021	48%	27.3	191			877.3	98,035			8611	9.87%
9/12/2014	931		846	0	18,805	50%	-27.0	-189			819.0	98,458			8707	9.72%
9/19/2014	889		886	0	18,592	49%	33.4	234			919.4	94,017			8781	10.09%
9/26/2014	881		862	0	18,828	50%	-14.7	-103	133	1,354	847.3	93,171	383,681		8660	9.95%
10/3/2014	901		858	0	18,651	49%	68.3	478			926.3	95,286			8645	9.92%
10/10/2014	885		885	3	18,356	48%	45.1	316			930.1	93,594			9043	9.79%
10/17/2014	896		876	0	17,940	47%	79.4	556			955.4	94,757			8836	9.91%
10/24/2014	937		878	0	17,039	45%	187.7	1314			1065.7	99,093			8867	9.90%
10/31/2014	929		860	0	17,169	45%	50.4	353	3,017	1,888	910.4	98,247	480,976		9162	9.39%
11/7/2014	946		860	0	17,705	47%	9.4	66			869.4	100,045			9005	9.55%
11/14/2014	970		854	0	17,335	46%	168.9	1182			1022.9	102,583			9194	9.29%
11/21/2014	982		874	0	17,072	45%	145.6	1019			1019.6	103,852			9254	9.44%
11/28/2014	962		856	0	17,289	46%	75.0	525	2,792	2,166	931.0	101,737	408,216	1,272,872	9245	9.26%
12/5/2014	988		838	0	17,750	47%	84.1	589			922.1	104,486			8549	9.80%
12/12/2014	990		857	0	17,659	47%	146.0	1022			1003.0	104,698			9373	9.14%
12/19/2014	992		880	0	17,615	46%	118.3	828			998.3	104,909			9518	9.25%
12/26/2014	972		856	18	18,094	48%	65.6	459	2,898	1,798	921.6	102,794	416,888		9614	8.90%
1/2/2015	949		789	0	18,845	50%	52.7	369			841.7	100,362			8809	8.96%
1/9/2015	978		815	0	20,229	53%	-34.7	-243			780.3	103,429			8875	9.18%
1/16/2015	979		837	0	20,387	54%	119.4	836			956.4	103,535			8851	9.46%
1/23/2015	978		842	0	20,631	54%	101.1	708			943.1	103,429			9022	9.33%
1/30/2015	948		830	0	20,986	55%	67.3	471	2,141	1,637	897.3	100,256	511,010		8442	9.83%
2/6/2015	961		826	0	21,135	56%	113.7	796			939.7	101,631			8282	9.97%
2/13/2015	964		852	0	21,084	56%	119.3	835			971.3	101,948			8809	9.67%
2/20/2015	947		845	0	21,594	57%	29.1	204			874.1	100,150			8915	9.48%
2/27/2015	931		846	0	21,528	57%	94.4	661	2,496	2,031	940.4	98,458	402,188	395,814	8630	9.80%
3/6/2015	944		840	0	21,173	56%	154.7	1083			994.7	99,833			8515	9.86%
3/13/2015	947		863	0	20,820	55%	134.4	941			997.4	100,150			9260	9.32%
3/20/2015	953		866	0	21,317	56%	16.0	112			882.0	100,785			8619	10.05%
3/27/2015	952		869	0	20,547	54%	193.0	1351	3,487	1,999	1062.0	100,679	401,447	439,423	9435	9.21%
4/3/2015	936		867	0	20,483	54%	78.1	547			945.1	98,987			8610	10.07%
4/10/2015	924		885	0	20,645	54%	15.9	111			900.9	97,718			8914	9.93%
4/17/2015	930		879	53	21,342	56%	4.4	31			883.4	98,353			9185	9.57%
4/24/2015	921		875	0	20,797	55%	123.9	867			998.9	97,401	392,458	409,045	8920	9.81%
5/1/2015	887		870	0	20,762	55%	22.0	154	1,710	1,786	892.0	93,805			8785	9.90%
5/8/2015	912		891	0	20,299	54%	87.1	610			978.1	96,449			9201	9.68%
5/15/2015	958		906	0	20,434	54%	32.7	229			938.7	101,314			9261	9.78%
5/22/2015	969		905	0	20,097	53%	112.1	785			1017.1	102,477			9734	9.30%
5/29/2015	972		874	0	20,068	53%	102.1	715	2,339	1,540	976.1	102,794	496,839		8978	9.73%
6/5/2015	992		884	0	20,246	53%	82.6	578			966.6	104,909			9600	9.21%
6/12/2015	980		912	0	20,718	55%	0.6	4			912.6	103,640			9176	9.94%
6/19/2015	994		902	0	19,840	52%	217.4	1522			1119.4	105,121			9655	9.34%
6/26/2015	968		908	0	19,532	51%	104.0	728	2,832	1,437	1012.0	102,371			9731	9.33%
7/3/2015	987		904	0	19,841	52%	38.9	272			942.9	104,381			9532	9.48%
7/10/2015	984		881	0	19,740	52%	117.4	822			998.4	104,063			9404	9.37%
7/17/2015	973		897	0	19,559	52%	101.9	713			998.9	102,900			9749	9.20%
7/24/2015	965		903	0	19,648	52%	49.3	345			952.3	102,054			9339	9.67%
7/31/2015	961		910	0	19,239	51%	109.4	766	2,918	1,843	1019.4	101,631			9687	9.39%
8/7/2015	965		898	0	18,529	49%	168.4	1179			1066.4	102,054			9686	9.27%
8/14/2015	965		908	0	18,561	49%	52.4	367			960.4	102,054			9705	9.36%
8/21/2015	952		903	0	18,628	49%	39.4	276			942.4	100,679			9189	9.83%
8/28/2015	948		921	12	19,002	50%	-14.4	-101	1,721	1,197	906.6	100,256			9438	9.76%
9/4/2015	958		896	0	18,642	49%	113.4	794			1009.4	101,314			9017	9.94%
9/11/2015	961		878	0	18,291	48%	133.1	932			1011.1	101,631			8983	9.77%
9/18/2015	938		892	44	18,900	50%	3.0	21			895.0	99,199			9215	9.68%
9/25/2015	943		881	0	18,782	50%	78.9	552	2,299		959.9	99,727			9021	9.77%
10/2/2015	950		882	17	18,812	50%	80.7	565			962.7	100,468			8958	9.85%
10/9/2015	949		887	0	18,956	50%	41.4	290			928.4	100,362			9137	9.71%
10/16/2015	951		897	0	18,872	50%	66.0	462			963.0	100,573			9157	9.80%
10/23/2015	944		915	0	18,273	48%	114.6	802			1029.6	99,833			9343	9.79%
10/30/2015	969		884	10	18,774	49%	23.4	164	2,283		907.4	102,477			9184	9.63%
11/6/2015	982		868	26	18,854	50%	128.6	900			996.6	103,852			9388	9.25%
11/13/2015	975		870	0	19,249	51%	48.6	340			918.6	103,112			9054	9.61%
11/20/2015	1008		885	0	19,627	52%	69.0	483			954.0	106,601			8921	9.92%
									2,248	pace
Q1 15	960.7		886.3	8.1	18836		75	525	6830	??	961	101,596			9115
Q1 14	925.8		865.0	0.2	17907.8		65	457	5942	1803	930	97,913			8924
												3682.5
15 vs 14	3.8%		2.5%		5.2%		15.0%	15.0%	15.0%	??	3.3%	3.8%			2.1%
			41238.0		Calendar Yr:		3707.0	25949.0		13470.0
			12124				gallons:	1089.86	32,844	23,568	71.8%
										565.74

Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

Cheers.

US fuel ethanol production barrier breached - Don Smith : 11/29/2015 13:00
- RE: US fuel ethanol production barrier breached - bkadds : 11/29/2015 14:43
- RE:I had been wondering if .... - 1234 : 11/29/2015 16:41
  - Seasonally strong post harvest.. - JonSCKs : 11/29/2015 17:47
    - Yearly summary - JonSCKs : 11/29/2015 18:15
      - Yearly Ethanol Exports - JonSCKs : 11/29/2015 18:21
        
        RE:If you average the ..... - 1234 : 11/29/2015 19:14

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