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Corn Beans AND Wheat - Energy Level Update
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jpartner
Posted 8/3/2015 16:39 (#4714289 - in reply to #4714233)
Subject: RE: Wheat


mtbrights - 8/3/2015 14:51 So now I get to decide If wheat is a leader or a follower. Might not make much of a difference either way.

Sorry mtbrights.  Wheat is kind of the stepchild of the grains.  Not as glamorous as the others - even those that grow it seem to hate it....  Anyway, I would not lump wheat in with the other two.  Wheat is the leader.  It will be the first to make new all time highs. Not tomorrow, but it is years ahead of the other grains in its maturity.

Wheat is interesting.  I mentioned a month or so ago that there is a chance of a larger rally in wheat.  This still remains to be the case. 

Structurally, wheat is trading inside of its 2008 highs.  The last major rally "eaked" out new lows.  The last rally up was met by sellers again, and it was lower in magnitude than the previous other two.

So far, price has not been able to reach the points it should.  It is struggling.  So what we have is the rallies getting smaller because the energy from the downside movement of the market is not much.

On the modified schiff which has projecting price nicely, we have the first overshoot, then price returns to balance, and overshoots by a similar amounts, then overshoots the UML again, but again is not able return to its source - let alone make any more downside headway.  You can see that there is a level in here where buyer are picking on it.

So if it gets going, where can we expect it to go?  It is bigger than the last two rallies, but bound by the same rules.  If you got bins and can pay the bills, use them IMHO.  I think we will know the answer to the outcome of this in a couple more weeks.

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