| w1891 - 6/30/2015 21:06
So the lowest non-major drought yield year since 2003 despite having the first and third producing corn states with over 80% good/excellent. As bad as Missouri is and Indiana is, their acres are drawfed by the production of the northwestern corn belt. We also must remember pollination is beginning under very favorable conditions for the non- drowned out corn. Much like it takes really good weather everywhere to get super high yields, it also takes a lot of poor weather over a large area to hurt yields that much. 158-160 is still a better yield to point to at this time.
Here is Arlan Suderman's closing comments. He was a little high on yield last year. His model divulges not only into good/ex rating but also into the layers below it.
"As a result, my seasonally adjusted corn yield model dropped to 164.8 bushels per acre this week, down 2.2 bushels on the week. Ironically, history would argue in years like this that yield models would tend to over-estimate yields until late in the season. As such, we’re likely dealing with a current crop potential closer to 160 bushels per acre and declining." |
Imagine
