| This is very interesting for me.. I wondered who filled the gap during our ethanol expansion and the droughts of 2011 and 2012? This table has it..
http://www.ers.usda.gov/datafiles/Feed_Grains_Yearbook_Tables/Exports_and_Imports/FGYearbookTable27Full.pdf Export/import and country/region 1/ 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Corn exporters United States 47,758 49,696 45,162 38,389 18,262 50,707 Brazil 7,178 8,623 11,582 12,674 26,044 22,041 Ukraine 5,497 5,072 5,008 15,157 12,726 20,000 Argentina 8,466 16,973 15,198 16,501 22,789 12,808 Russian Federation, Begins 2/1992 1,331 427 37 2,027 1,917 4,100 India 2,551 1,917 3,376 4,674 4,768 3,900 Paraguay 1,847 1,359 1,201 2,188 2,858 2,714 1,873 1,569 1,096 3,287 2,193 2,400 Republic Of South Africa 2,111 1,586 2,839 1,831 2,398 2,300 Canada 366 186 1,658 494 1,813 1,846 Serbia 1,467 1,343 2,004 2,331 601 1,800 Thailand 709 951 334 224 114 1,109 Myanmar (Burma) 400 300 175 200 550 600 Mexico 162 642 87 694 522 550 Cambodia 200 200 100 200 300 300 Laos 250 250 250 250 200 300 This is from page 9 of a 91 page document.. and it's not the only nugget but as you can see above.. (sorry the paste is not any better..) The US goes from 60.6 mmt's of exports in 07/08.. all the way down to 18.3 in 2012 when (face it..) we ran out..
Who filled that 42 mmt gap?
Brazil doubled their exports from 7..8..11 mmt's to 26 mmt's.. ALOT of which was Double cropped.. and there's some concern about the lateness of this year's first crop beanies going in.. as well as dryness down there..
Ukraine.. the wonderful military zone that it is.. went from 5 mmt's to 15 to 20 mmt's That's a powder keg waiting to explode..
Argentina.. the financial basket case that it is also stepped up to 23 mmt's.. but has fallen back to 12.8 last year.. we must have cleaned them out..??
Russia.. is growing and did 4.1 mmt's last year..
Here is the next page.. which is an estimate going forward..
Export/import and country/region 1/ 2014/15 Corn exporters United States 44,500 Brazil 22,000 Ukraine 16,500 Argentina 12,500 Russian Federation, Begins 2/1992 3,000 India 2,500 Paraguay 1,900 Notice how Ukraine, Russia and Argentina all drop back.. I'm pretty skeptical of Brazil's ability to INCREASE exports to 22 mmt's..??? but maybe..
There's also something interesting on the importers side of the ledger.. The first line must be an "unaccounted" number which this year was 16 mmt's..
Corn importers 2,457 2,758 7,385 6,113 11,351 16,000 Japan 16,531 15,971 15,648 14,892 14,412 15,121 Mexico 7,764 8,298 8,252 11,172 5,676 10,954 South Korea 7,188 8,461 8,107 7,636 8,174 10,406 Egypt 5,031 5,832 5,803 7,154 5,059 8,500 Iran 3,600 4,300 3,500 4,000 3,700 5,500 China (Taiwan) 4,532 4,521 4,134 4,341 4,232 4,400
On the forecast they DROP it to 6 mmt's...
Corn importers 6,000 Japan 15,400 Mexico 10,900 South Korea 9,600 Egypt 7,500 Iran 5,500 China (Taiwan) 4,200
Does 10 mmt's of DEMAND (about 400 myn bushels..) just go "POOF"??? On my export table above.. the WASDE is at 46.83.. this table is at 44.5.. and my model is ON PACE to hit..48.8.. from looking at this data.. my model looks the most accurate (to me..;-) and it would seem like we could EASILY do another 50+ mmt year.. or exports from the US approaching 2 byn bushels..
but "I could be wrong."
Edited by JonSCKs 11/23/2014 08:07
|