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Export table updated..
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JonSCKs
Posted 11/23/2014 07:48 (#4195506 - in reply to #4194672)
Subject: Who filled the gap?


This is very interesting for me.. I wondered who filled the gap during our ethanol expansion and the droughts of 2011 and 2012?  This table has it..

http://www.ers.usda.gov/datafiles/Feed_Grains_Yearbook_Tables/Exports_and_Imports/FGYearbookTable27Full.pdf   

Export/import and country/region 1/ 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

Corn exporters United States 47,758 49,696 45,162 38,389 18,262 50,707

Brazil 7,178 8,623 11,582 12,674 26,044 22,041

Ukraine 5,497 5,072 5,008 15,157 12,726 20,000

Argentina 8,466 16,973 15,198 16,501 22,789 12,808

Russian Federation, Begins 2/1992 1,331 427 37 2,027 1,917 4,100

India 2,551 1,917 3,376 4,674 4,768 3,900

Paraguay 1,847 1,359 1,201 2,188 2,858 2,714

1,873 1,569 1,096 3,287 2,193 2,400

Republic Of South Africa 2,111 1,586 2,839 1,831 2,398 2,300

Canada 366 186 1,658 494 1,813 1,846

Serbia 1,467 1,343 2,004 2,331 601 1,800

Thailand 709 951 334 224 114 1,109

Myanmar (Burma) 400 300 175 200 550 600

Mexico 162 642 87 694 522 550

Cambodia 200 200 100 200 300 300

Laos 250 250 250 250 200 300


This is from page 9 of a 91 page document.. and it's not the only nugget but as you can see above.. (sorry the paste is not any better..)  The US goes from 60.6 mmt's of exports in 07/08.. all the way down to 18.3 in 2012 when (face it..) we ran out..  

Who filled that 42 mmt gap?

Brazil doubled their exports from 7..8..11 mmt's to 26 mmt's.. ALOT of which was Double cropped.. and there's some concern about the lateness of this year's first crop beanies going in.. as well as dryness down there..

Ukraine.. the wonderful military zone that it is.. went from 5 mmt's to 15 to  20 mmt's  That's a powder keg waiting to explode..

Argentina.. the financial basket case that it is also stepped up to 23 mmt's.. but has fallen back to 12.8 last year.. we must have cleaned them out..??

Russia.. is growing and did 4.1 mmt's last year..

Here is the next page.. which is an estimate going forward..

Export/import and country/region 1/ 2014/15

Corn exporters United States 44,500

Brazil 22,000

Ukraine 16,500

Argentina 12,500

Russian Federation, Begins 2/1992 3,000

India 2,500

Paraguay 1,900


Notice how Ukraine, Russia and Argentina all drop back.. I'm pretty skeptical of Brazil's ability to INCREASE exports to 22 mmt's..???  but maybe..

There's also something interesting on the importers side of the ledger..  The first line must be an "unaccounted" number which this year was 16 mmt's..

Corn importers 2,457 2,758 7,385 6,113 11,351 16,000

Japan 16,531 15,971 15,648 14,892 14,412 15,121

Mexico 7,764 8,298 8,252 11,172 5,676 10,954

South Korea 7,188 8,461 8,107 7,636 8,174 10,406

Egypt 5,031 5,832 5,803 7,154 5,059 8,500

Iran 3,600 4,300 3,500 4,000 3,700 5,500

China (Taiwan) 4,532 4,521 4,134 4,341 4,232 4,400 

On the forecast they DROP it to 6 mmt's...

Corn importers 6,000

Japan 15,400

Mexico 10,900

South Korea 9,600

Egypt 7,500

Iran 5,500

China (Taiwan) 4,200 

Does 10 mmt's of DEMAND (about 400 myn bushels..) just go "POOF"???  On my export table above.. the WASDE is at 46.83.. this table is at 44.5.. and my model is ON PACE to hit..48.8.. from looking at this data.. my model looks the most accurate (to me..;-) and it would seem like we could EASILY do another 50+ mmt year.. or exports from the US approaching 2 byn bushels..

but "I could be wrong." 



Edited by JonSCKs 11/23/2014 08:07
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