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| It's hard to see this not as a big reset back to long term prices (which are actually lower value when inflation is considered). However, this is typical sentiment for markets going down and unless the news is extremely extremely bullish it just keeps tanking on whatever bearish news there is. It's clear we have more than adequate supply, but, given the type of futures buyers we have (not coupled to our fundamentals), it doesn't necessarily matter. We can carp about COP and acres, but in the end it's the folks who sense a deal/bargain and start buying. The difference these days is the magnitude of dollars that can come into the market.
Once we get to some 'declared bottom' I predict we'll have bargain hunter buying on the CME and with a little piling on, we may get to that $4 cash price again before they freak out and start selling. At some point fundamentals do play a role and they just are not lined up for a sustained bull market any time soon. | |
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When the market is in a tailspin like this...
