|
| Our local basis is at 36 under for fall and 28 under for Jan. It's probably only going to get wider for a while since fundamentals of transportation, storage and demand actually effect basis (unlike CME price). I don't have lots of storage so plan B might be to actually make sales or do a basis contract and reown using calls (which are pretty cheap) or make it even cheaper with some sort of spread (buy/sell an option). I get the idea everyone in the world will be doing this and I can't help but think that options are cheap because they are never going to increase in value. It is a futures market and maybe they do know or at least control the future.
The hope would be for a few less than stellar yield reports (recent reports are way into the too good too be true category*) that result in getting the interest of big money.
*there will be fields of 270 bushel corn, but not all soil is class A and I can see plenty of us being 'disappointed' with a measly 195 bpa or, more likely, 180 bpa on typically 160bpa ground. It's not all going to be above 200. I would like to think this time it's different, but it hasn't been in the past. It will still be a great year, but maybe not as great as all the predictions. | |
|
New lows
