There's been chatter about a pretty lively debate within NASS vs WAOB over last year's crop size.. WAOB did the last number and served up a -69 residual.. This time NASS went along.. upping it to -94 for the 13/14 crop where you would normally expect a positive.. 15.

So.. that means we probably got a 100 myn bu bump to last year's soybean crop coming.. and hence since they missed it LAST year probably why they are staying heck bent on pushing yields THIS year..  (kudo's to whoever argued this revision.. "yipper guess you were right." from a couple of weeks ago..)

Now I STILL will argue that dryness now and going forward will impact yields.. specifically..


 
We just got their snapshot of surveyed conditions.. now HOW have things changed since... (see above..)

We're gonna have to wait until the stocks reports to settle things now.

btw they did LOWER the Corn Carry IN number while INCREASING 13/14 exports (who'd of thunk that?)  So it's still the CORN that is needed.. beanies.. "not as much."

We had a good fringe dryland bean crop "here" last year.. repeatable..???  Things change in a changing world.. one thing about it the US farmer is responding.. and ma Nature is cooperating but.. these are not GIVENS.. we could go right back into the frying pan..

This is STILL hanging around.. even after 16" of precip "here" last July and August 2013.. Wheat yields were not spectacular.. in fact some places were down right terrible.

 
One last thing.. We still got the corn acreage cut coming.. (I think about 1 myn give or take harvested acres..) so that can/will offset about 2 bu per acre of yield gain coming home.. 1 myn x 168 / 82.8 = 2.03 bu to the acre.. so it's still going to be hard to get over 170 bu yields nationally going forward.. (but not impossible..)  Said another way though.. NASS probably thinks the REAL yield is 167.4 + 2 = 169.4.. (so there's THAT side of the argument also.. they probably held back a little because of acres..the two will somewhat cancel each other...) 

Not sure how much the quant reduction will be this year but they ALSO seemed to acknowledge that.. as we cut Carry in.. 65 myn bu.. and only 20 of it came from exports.. (haven't checked all the other numbers but ASSUME that it must be)  F & R

Did they OVER estimate the 2013 Corn crop..???  (like someone on here was saying all along last summer and this past winter...???)   hmmm..

Residuals.. the bane of forecasters...