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Ontario's middle east | I agree with what you are saying. I stopped hating corn this week, didn't post on it til last night. Have been saying since last fall that carry would get hit. It has been very steady until now but things changed this week. It quite frankly has been a bit of a head scratcher. The fact that some end users have had trouble procuring leads some to believe the corn is not there. I'm not from that camp. I have really not had trouble buying corn. Since the market has been paying decent carry, guys like me really have no reason to puke it up in the nearby......some of us think basis follows the spreads.
I found Rays remarks extremely insightful this week (does anyone think he can be that right at home ? ;-} ). Ray said the best strategy for an end user that can't buy cash is buy the front month of the board. Hope that will spark a rally and leave them in great shape, with long futures to exchange. This changes two things, the speccs get hot seeing the bull spreading and hedgers who didn't set spreads are losing ground on the basis position.
That all being said I'm not a $6 Jon-bull. I think the American farmer will unload on this with both barrels near 4.50 Fwiw, but I've been wrong before! | |
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Spread Trading
