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Theodore, Saskatchewan | Sat price is still only 3 cents from your entry and certainly no guarantee that it will go a lot higher. Long term we all know that price will move down from this level and so timing is the key. If next June Dec corn is 500 this will be a great trade. But there is uncertainty to be maintained in the market, especially with too much rain happening this week in Argentina and a persistent drought in the US. The other thing in the back of my mind is that when a bull market has run its course deferred futures may go on to make new highs while nearby futures do not. For example all time high of 8.50 will not be reached but the Dec 2013 can still make a new contract high....say 700. Which is still 1.50 down from the all time high but is very good price for a contract in the future. This has me thinking about time and my level of risk.
As a farmer we can play the market on a long term trend because we plan on growing the crop. So incremental selling can work in your favour,
For example to establish 4 short contracts it is possible to select a target for each one knowing that some will be reached and the market can turn at any time,
1 - 6.40
1 - 6.60
1 - 6.80
1 - 7.00
Average 4 - 6.70
I have attached a chart with targets I have in mind, however for me taking on a short I will wait to see if this uptrend continues and use it to my advantage. Therefore simply holding out for less risk on my trade,
Sat it is not that I am reading things really bullish but last year I set targets and got caught with positions much larger than they should have been and the trend going the wrong way. I thought the bull market from 2007 would be coming to an end but it did not, we will enter a multi year bear market but it will take some time. The real low price targets in the back of my mind may not be until 2014 - 2015.
Mad I hope this helps your indecision
 (1-Fullscreen capture 05122012 122533 PM.jpg)
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 1-Fullscreen capture 05122012 122533 PM.jpg (34KB - 32 downloads)
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Corn
