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| I believe exports 'should' be raised slightly in view of the weak dollar & decent EU demand. I also think feed use should be raised. The TRICK is, USDA uses feed & residual category to 'adjust' for their past estimation errors.
The dollar is under pressure overnight. I notice a couple of interesting items: the open interest in Nov beans is dropping due to the Goldman roll, that is expected; however, the large cash/futures exchange in corn and wheat indicate we did pick up new open interest in both old crop wheat and in spot corn yesterday. Plus, Japan bot some wheat overnight & I see Morocco is in for 500,000 MT of soft wheat..this will be interesting from the standpoint Morocco has already bought approx. 5.5 mil bushel from the US...they have not bought a significant amount of wheat from the USA in about 5 years...if some of this tender draws USA soft wheat, instead of USSR...I would view that as constructive..they seek this wheat for Nov-Dec....I think an issue which has not been addressed by anyone on this forum is the possible quality issue for Aussie wheat..dry weather may reduce protein content in some cases. I don't have enough long corn & short wheat on to be concerned...if I had a bunch I would anticipate tomorrow could put me in the position of one foot on the dock and one on the boat..with the boat headed out to sea...we are in bull markets & with so many unknowns yet to unfold it is really premature to yet make long term hard decisions (as far as speculation). | |
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Research on Ethanol-corn slightly higher risk-my opinion
