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| My advice from a guy with a dismal record. "you gotta sell it when they are willing to pay you for it. Don't be seduced for the ever bullish predictions of $5 or $10 soybeans. The perma bulls are just that, perma bulls. Irrational exuberance can be very seductive. Pennies per bushel aren't as important as dollars per acre. I sold 8,000 bushels of $8 beans in the face of predicted prices much higher. Beans are $8.60 now so I guess that is a 60 cent blunder.
Then consider $3 corn coming out of the field that could have been contracted for $3.60 for fall delivery. Perhaps more. Which decision do I regret the most? Yep the $3.60 corn opportunity. So a 60 cent drop in 60,000 bushel of corn is a loss of $36000 whereas the 60 loss on potential beans sales was a mere $4800 to what I could have had. The lesson being that I'm not apt to hit the high on any sale. The odds are against it. Yet an $8 sale at 50 bushel is a respectable sale. Add to it an additional 5 to 6 bushel yeild and it sounds even better.
So I don't mind being dumber than a post as long as there is money in the bank. Taking advantage of good prices when they are offered is imperitive. Plus you might study future bids and consider the cost of storage and carry til that later date. There are rewards if you wish to hold the physical grain and take care of it. Mainly be ever conscious of sales opportunities and it is helpful if the sales coincide or are prior to cash requirements. Thus you are making sales based on merit rather than on need. Needing cash is a poor reason for sales and borrowing money for expenses when you have an abundance high value grain is a bit foolhardy. It's the same as borrowing money to speculate when the market already rewards you with good profits. Todays windfall is not really that important. It's the cumulative success over a long period of time.
$3.65 for new corn 08 from the combine as we speak. That may or may not look good a year from now. But $700 per acre doesn't sound too bad from this perspective.
Edited by Don Kraft 9/25/2007 21:57
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I need help
