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| 1 5000 bu. corn contract ---------spec trade$2363 + $1750 initial maintenance.
Hedge trade $1750 +1750 maintenance
And if you value your sanity and sleep very much, forget it!
I am sitting on 5 contracts bought in Aug. of last year thanks to a lil bird who post here. Got it @ $ 4.28 and have never sold that high, much less bought that high. Never behind from day 1. I am refering to what was said by soil-life
soil-life
Posted 8/10/2010 07:52 (#1308733 - in reply to #1308726)
Subject: Re: WONDERING
North Central Ohio, across the Corn belt ! From Your Friend Gartmen ! ! Senior
The chart we’ve included here this morning of corn
prices in weekly terms over the past several years
suggests to us that the corn bull market has only just
begun. If we can buy “red” Dec’11 corn anywhere near
$4.33-4.35/bushel this week we shall do so. We can
imagine “red” Dec corn trading $6.00-$6.50/bushel
rather easily… especially if Chinese economic activity
picks up even slightly and Chinese per capita incomes
continue to rise as they have been over the past
several years, taking Chinese demand for feed grains
along with them:
SeniorCitizen
Posted 8/10/2010 08:01 (#1308745 - in reply to #1308733)
Subject: Re: WONDERING
Dennis is a good fellow. Have not talked to him for years. In the old times we were on a competitive ego track...he is extremely sharp on currencies & interest rates. I oftentimes related to him in those time 'he made me nervous' when he dabbled in grains. (kidding him of course).
djmcountryboy
Posted 8/10/2010 18:14 (#1309361 - in reply to #1308733)
Subject: Soil-life
Mascoutah, Illinois Soil-life, can you let Dennis know the window is open after today's action?
Did you notice the tear Monsanto stock went on in the past month? It shot up like a rocket.
SeniorCitizen
Posted 8/10/2010 07:53 (#1308737 - in reply to #1308726)
Subject: Re: WONDERING
Another consideration as a backdrop scenario in this entire deal...if the Fed over the next couple of months does engage in more QE (think test balloons are currently being floated) simultaneous with a tightening world grain supply....the outcome may bite them in the A$$. I am confident some seasoned folks over at USDA are also thinking along this line, except I doubt the White House or Fed seeks their opinions.
Buckwheat
Posted 8/10/2010 07:59 (#1308741 - in reply to #1308737)
Subject: Re: WONDERING
More Dollars chasing fewer goods.........."hmmmmmmmm...if I remember correctly back to ECON 101,,,,,inflation?????"
On another note was cruising through your website and looks like Ag Stocks are on the increase.........fertilizer prices are climbing here.......A good Ag Stock for yield (and I own it) is CHS preffered shares on the Nasdaq...........7% yield via dividend...........beats the old sock..........
SeniorCitizen
Posted 8/10/2010 08:05 (#1308753 - in reply to #1308741)
Subject: Re: WONDERING
Think the potential inflation may be sector by sector.....between fuel & food....consumers may be leaving their fancy homes & buying Yurts or constructing prairie sod dugouts or JOINING me down by the river.
chpluck
Posted 8/10/2010 08:01 (#1308746 - in reply to #1308726)
Subject: RE: WONDERING
I don't know about other parts of the corn belt, but from my scouting forays, this corn is not finishing well. I am preparing myself mentally for some disappointing yields. WCIL
soil-life
Posted 8/10/2010 08:18 (#1308767 - in reply to #1308746)
Subject: Re: WONDERING
North Central Ohio, across the Corn belt ! August seems to always Tell the Story across the Corn belt
The Corn I am Monitoring in North Central Ohio Looks to be finishing as Good as I have Ever seen !
maddog
Posted 8/10/2010 08:31 (#1308782 - in reply to #1308767)
Subject: Re: Iowa is floating away
northcentral iowa Can someone near St Louis please check my corn when it floats by on the bug "muddy"?
dmanuel
Posted 8/10/2010 08:52 (#1308804 - in reply to #1308782)
Subject: Re: Iowa is floating away
I agree with maddog ,I guess the so called ISOLATED flooded areas don't make any difference . West central Ia
Flying Illini
Posted 8/10/2010 10:31 (#1308929 - in reply to #1308782)
Subject: Re: WONDERING
Central Illinois Freese Notis Weather reports Jan 1 - Aug 10 now the wettest recorded.
swne
Posted 8/10/2010 08:33 (#1308786 - in reply to #1308746)
Subject: Re: WONDERING
Cambridge, southwestern Nebraska I would agree. Ours is finnishing too fast. Yields will be OK but I don't believe we will see exceptional yields.
roarintiger1
Posted 8/10/2010 09:04 (#1308831 - in reply to #1308786)
Subject: Re: WONDERING
NW Ohio Read ehoff's weekend challenge from back on Friday. Many more "lower" corn and bean yields predicted compared to last year. This, coupled with higher demand numbers will mean an interesting "bid for acres" type market for next year.
Trapper
Posted 8/10/2010 09:58 (#1308896 - in reply to #1308831)
Subject: Re: WONDERING
Both sides of the Mason-Dixon Line roarintiger1 - 8/10/2010 09:04
Read ehoff's weekend challenge from back on Friday. Many more "lower" corn and bean yields predicted compared to last year. This, coupled with higher demand numbers will mean an interesting "bid for acres" type market for next year.
"bid for acres" That brings up a good point. I suspect that the recent wheat rally will double our wheat acres here locally, and if the rest of the country will get the wheat seed that they are looking for, wheat acres will be up 20% (or more) nationally. I am hearing that farmers from Arkansas were calling a local seed supplier for seed, and we have local farmers going to Ohio for seed. So I guess the question is, which crop will decline in acres? I suspect that the soybean acres will decline due to the increase in wheat acres.
-----
Pride Farming: When its not about money
Pat H
Posted 8/10/2010 09:57 (#1308895 - in reply to #1308786)
Subject: Re: WONDERING
Cropsey, IL We (ECIL) had a little less June water damage than a few areas around us, but there are still spots of short/stunted corn. Even stunted it was pretty green a couple of weeks ago when I sprayed fungicides and they have ears. I don't think any of it has a great root system. However, the lack of rain through much of July and up to today (it's raining) probably didn't help finish off the corn - shallow roots need water more often. Did the corn put roots down deeper into new soil/nutrient/water horizons? Possibly, but we seem a long way a way from the really promising start we had after emergence. Where I thought I had a NCGA potential plot (250+) now I'm thinking I'll be happy just to get to 200bpa - though the extra N, fungicides, stoller snake oil (I believe that's what it's called) and healthy amount of manure means I have more cost per bushel.
Thanks,
Pat
PS: I could be completely wrong - last year when I felt low test weight, wet/sloppy harvest conditions causing more harvest loss and frost ending the maturation cycle early would have made for 140 bpa yeilds and instead I had my best average yield ever (180) and particularily challenging fields yielded as good or somewhat better than they every had.
PPS: Last nights and todays rains are about perfect timing for the relatively late planted beans. Most of my beans look pretty good, but they were planted in less than ideal conditions. I've have a pretty slim stand in my no-til and it needs pretty good rains to help it bush out and set more pods - it can still work, but it needs better than average conditions from now until harvest.
trackman
Posted 8/10/2010 11:11 (#1308952 - in reply to #1308895)
Subject: Re: WONDERING
Might be biggest crop yet for state of Wisconsin. Have had perfect mix of rain and heat, northern half of Il looks oustanding also!
Newguy
Posted 8/10/2010 12:02 (#1309009 - in reply to #1308726)
Subject: RE: WONDERING
Renville Minnesota I hate saying this, but unless we get the white hard rain, Im looking at Minnesota's best crop ever raised. My back yard has averaged about an inch a rain a week.....In one inch increments, (no big rains). Average temps the last 3 weeks have been close to 85 during the day with humidity unlike Ive seen since a child.
Last ten years weve been borderline drought by early august.....Had what we consider good yields, few great yeilds, but good in those years.......
Guys around here wont pin point a average on what they think were going to harvest...BUT...all say 220 dry will be a conservative average.........here........and here.......We don't raise 220 bu feild average corn. Maybe 170-190 average for last ten years.
-----
Floor heat, Alemite grease guns = NAT approved.
Iowa55
Posted 8/10/2010 12:19 (#1309034 - in reply to #1309009)
Subject: Re: WONDERING
South Podunk Country, Iowa (SC) Went on a road trip from SC Iowa west through central Neb then s to Norton,Ks area. The crops looked great all the way to Norton. Visited a BTO there and he showed me several quarters coming out of CRP that he was going to wheat with. This is/was 20 year CRP. He thought there would be a lot more planted this year. Would have gone to beans next year if not for this run up in wheat prices.
Historicly speaking this used to be weat country but with the CRP and poor wheat prices, corn and beans took over.
JD8330
Posted 8/10/2010 14:45 (#1309176 - in reply to #1309009)
Subject: Re: WONDERING
Kossuth county, Iowa You guys up there do look excellent!! Seem like once I cross the border into MN the crops just look great. What's left of ours look good, just to much water all at once to give us that 220 field average.
Mnsidehill
Posted 8/10/2010 18:14 (#1309363 - in reply to #1309009)
Subject: RE: WONDERING
Not all of Mn has the great crops. Three quarters of a inch was the biggest rain of the summer. That was around 4th of July. Have had less than an inch in the last 6weeks. The beans burning on the light spots. Some spot are burnt and only stems. There are some fields of corn that will not make 100 bu . Today you could see many spots in corn fields that are hurting very bad. There are spots in at least 6 counties that are hurting. Only 1.5 tenthsof rain today. Was in a seed tent at farmfest and said we were dry. One dsm said there is no place in MN that is dry. I told him he needs to get out in the country and look for himself. Have not planted corn from them for 5 years and was thinking of trying some next year. But his arrogence has not changed.
bugs
Posted 8/10/2010 18:18 (#1309367 - in reply to #1309009)
Subject: Re: WONDERING
e.c.ill so ind and so il looks good for the most part
sbark
Posted 8/10/2010 13:04 (#1309076 - in reply to #1308726)
Subject: QE2 thoughts from S&A Stansbury short report
For the past couple weeks, we've been hearing rumors about the possibility of "QE2" – the sequel to the Fed's quantitative easing program (QE1).
QE1 authorized the Fed to go into the market and use your tax dollars to buy up trillions of dollars in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). This helped put a bid under the crippled MBS market. It firmed up prices, provided liquidity, and helped bring down long-term interest rates. (Of course, it also allowed the banks to sell nearly worthless mortgages to the Fed at premium prices – but we'll save that discussion for another time.)
Supposedly, QE1 ended in June. Now it's time for QE2.
The rumor is the Fed will now use the proceeds from MBS payments to go into the market and buy U.S. Treasury bonds. The goal here is to keep a bid under T-bond prices and keep downward pressure on interest rates.
Currency speculators are salivating over this rumor. Expectations for lower interest rates usually lead to a lower currency value. So the popular trade right now is to short the dollar and buy the euro.
The popular trade will be the wrong trade.
First, this is a classic case of "buy the rumor and sell the news." The currency markets have already reacted to the rumor. Speculators have been selling the dollar and buying the euro. If and when QE2 is announced, the market will have already discounted the news. Speculators will rush to unwind their positions. They'll buy the dollar and sell the euro.
Also, the amount of money involved in QE2 will be far less than the several trillions of dollars used for QE1. Mortgage-backed securities pay interest and principal to investors every month (think of it as the other side of your mortgage payment). According to the rumor, the Fed will use that cash flow to buy Treasury bonds. That's just a small fraction of the total value of the MBS. Investors will likely be disappointed with the amount.
Finally, the dollar looks ready to rally. Take a look...
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Edited by fhayden51 4/23/2011 12:24
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Speculating corn
