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NW Indiana | I have made some posts on this already but want to share some more numbers. I cannot figure out how the usda is going to reconcile the stocks report without either adjusting demand up or supply down. However we know they typically don't make sudden changes to wasde's based on stocks reports but I have never seen one so glaringly obvious that the math just simply does not work.
Total supply of corn is up 1.661 billion bushel yoy. Demand is estimated up 849. According to the stocks yoy we have already used 710 million of that additional demand leaving only 139 million left. Exports are estimated up 439 million while current shipments as of March 1 are only up roughly 200 million leaving 239 million of additional demand. Sales yet to ship are up 132 million as of March 1 but looking at the last 3 weeks indicates no reason to believe we don't reach that 239 number so that already puts us 100 over the current demand estimate
Feed and ethanol are estimated to be up 410 million yoy but yet the disappearance in the first 2 quarters alone according to the stocks report is already up 510 million. So there is another 100 over demand estimate. So what is the likelihood ethanol and feed slow to last years pace the next 2 quarters?
The math does not lie. The question is does the usda blatantly lie and disregard the stocks report? All indications suggest demand is either 300-500 million higher than current estimates or supply is that much lower. You can simply not do the math any other way. The usda has a history of not making adjustments until after the fact, there should be an outrage if this happens this time when it is so blatantly obvious something isn't adding up.
Edited by IN555 4/2/2024 11:07
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April wasde is going to be interesting
