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| In two days we have the USDA acres and stocks report.
The USDA outlook forum had 91 million for corn, and beans at 87.5 million.
The estimates for the this report have corn coming in at 91.78 million. Which is nearly +1 million higher than the USDA outlook forum but still smaller than last year's 94.64 million.
The estimates for soybeans are 86.53 million, down -1 million from the USDA outlook but nearly +3 million more than last year.
Wheat acre estimates are slightly higher than the USDA outlook, but down over -2 million from last year.
Below are the estimates from Karen Braun (1st pic)
Let's take a look at some history for this upcoming report.
Keep in mind, the actual results of this report are impossible to predict.
For corn, the prospective plantings acres have came in higher than the USDA outlook forum the past 7 of 11 years.
They have came in lower than the USDA outlook just 3 times. However, 2 of those 3 years have came within the past 3 years alone. In 2022, 2021, and 2018.
Below is a chart from Naomi Blohm of all the past corn numbers (2nd pic)
Soybean acres for this report have came in higher 4 times in the past decade. 2014, 2015, 2017, and 2022.
They have came in lower than the USDA outlook 5 times in the past decade. In 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021.
Below are charts from Darin Fessler of the history for all 3 main grains (3rd, 4th, and 5th pic)
From Karen Braun:
"Are US corn acres going to be bearish on Thursday? Not sure, but new-crop CBOT soybeans have been trading around 2.5 times that of corn so far this year, a ratio not recently associated with the shockingly large corn intentions. It's just one factor though, no guarantees." (6th pic)
So essentially she is pointing out that historically when the corn to soybean ratio is high (meaning corn is trading a lot lower than soybeans are in comparison) we tend to not see as bearish of planting intentions.
When the ratio is low (meaning corn is trading higher in comparison to soybeans) we tend to more bearish planting intentions.
The thought process is here is that when corn prices are low, producers often won’t go out of their way to plant extra corn.
Lastly below is the price action from the day of this upcoming report in past years. (7th pic)
As you can see, this report is often times a very big market mover.…
Check out yesterdays grain market update where we go over this report, managing risk, and everything else in the grains
Read Here: https://txt.so/HnurKg
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IMG_2448 (full).PNG (57KB - 123 downloads)
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2 days until USDA acres & stocks. History breakdown for this report
