East Central South Dakota | I agree with you on all points. I would add, using this year as an example, below average rainfall is not a crop killer without extreme heat. With today's hybrids and breeding you need that excessive heat to do a lot of damage. If you believe in the rain 90 days after fog April and May should be very wet for me. This is easy "what if" discussion with all scenarios still on the table. The hard part is if you are record short do you start unwinding a few positions in the next 90 days when the picture is still pretty hazy, like you mentioned. If a farmer with bins full, do you continue to store for a buck move in the worst-case scenario or like Rod@night eluded, do you take the first 50 cents caused by uncertainty and put it in the bank and play with 2024 crop. The decisions to be made the next 90 days are the hard ones. A bet for bad weather past May has a lot worse of odds in my book. |
Thinking out loud.......
